{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f894fd68-0bb8-4516-95eb-762360f5f6f9",
    "symbol": "ESEH",
    "name": "BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 UCITS ETF EUR H",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 72.792,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 85.116,
    "architecture_energy": 60.745,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.102,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.165,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.56,
        "rotation_up": 52.7,
        "upward_expansion": 80.36,
        "deceleration": 69.31,
        "rotation_down": 28.01,
        "downward_expansion": 9.36
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        24.145333,
        24.037182,
        23.840929,
        23.408419
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 24.775,
    "trend_reference": 22.93,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.080462,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 19.251308,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286926,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.063508,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.115991,
    "excess_performance": -0.054901,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080462,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030122,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.286926,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005771,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.050635,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023576,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115991,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 8.272187,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 18201,
      "relative_activity": 0.293673,
      "balance": 8.272187,
      "dry_up": 0.205036,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.017325,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.133651,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000403,
      "from_low_reference": 0.208537
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 22.93,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.251308,
      "structural_low": 20.5,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 39,
        "median_return": 0.013945,
        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.692308,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001711,
        "regime_survival": 0.820513,
        "best_return": 0.063622,
        "worst_return": -0.091221,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.026207,
        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001198,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.126306,
        "worst_return": -0.071967,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.069924,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001343,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.167306,
        "worst_return": -0.165495,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.098943,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016738,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.19968,
        "worst_return": -0.104313,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.034626,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2024-08-09",
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        "return": 0.004011,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-08-30",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.087616,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.137273,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 66397.7,
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        "fair_value": 19.020045,
        "relative_strength": -6.132111,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 66523.95,
        "trend": 22.7455,
        "fair_value": 19.076404,
        "relative_strength": -5.656349,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.865087,
        "energy": 56.647719,
        "activity_lines": [
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          23.553619,
          23.15614
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 23.805,
        "volume": 3724,
        "typical_volume": 64830.9,
        "trend": 22.797167,
        "fair_value": 19.131423,
        "relative_strength": -5.7411,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.443371,
        "energy": 50.229236,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.916,
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          23.630857,
          23.224495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 23.725,
        "volume": 13647,
        "typical_volume": 62961.0,
        "trend": 22.852,
        "fair_value": 19.18725,
        "relative_strength": -6.531918,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.410346,
        "energy": 42.211127,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.860333,
          23.883273,
          23.691452,
          23.284355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 24.775,
        "volume": 18201,
        "typical_volume": 61977.0,
        "trend": 22.93,
        "fair_value": 19.251308,
        "relative_strength": -5.063508,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.115722,
        "energy": 60.744542,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}