{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f899a71e-e2da-4141-8f12-b207bbc5f373", "symbol": "603877", "name": "Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.378, "architecture_energy": 24.771, "architecture_maturity": 70.309, "architecture_confidence": 81.926, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.76, "rotation_up": 24.54, "upward_expansion": 13.89, "deceleration": 46.21, "rotation_down": 34.43, "downward_expansion": 61.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.789333, 12.749455, 12.937738, 13.34858 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.64, "trend_reference": 14.095049, "distance_from_trend": -0.103231, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.635287, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136334, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.55164, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.211479, "excess_performance": -0.168275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103231, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055991, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136334, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037606, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211479, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15380749, "relative_activity": 1.854221, "balance": 0.618414, "dry_up": 1.411588, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076269, "annualized_volatility": 0.318081, "from_high_reference": -0.299723, "from_low_reference": 0.058626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.095049, "fair_value_reference": 14.635287, "structural_low": 11.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.023589, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.023872, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.076152, "worst_return": -0.148493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011905, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.02853, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.100785, "worst_return": -0.300356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061855, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063092, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.342874, "worst_return": -0.501774, 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13.634977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.17, "volume": 9792729, "typical_volume": 7670761.0, "trend": 14.198716, "fair_value": 14.722799, "relative_strength": -12.727797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.266798, "energy": 45.604076, "activity_lines": [ 12.536, 12.637104, 12.992466, 13.496759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.42, "volume": 13377572, "typical_volume": 7944594.5, "trend": 14.158049, "fair_value": 14.681995, "relative_strength": -3.873465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.645181, "energy": 25.572162, "activity_lines": [ 12.840667, 12.767924, 12.997412, 13.446519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.64, "volume": 15380749, "typical_volume": 8294991.4, "trend": 14.095049, "fair_value": 14.635287, "relative_strength": -11.55164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.378145, "energy": 24.771216, "activity_lines": [ 12.789333, 12.749455, 12.937738, 13.34858 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }