{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f89ece5a-59a4-48ae-b69a-9a766fa6e8f6", "symbol": "MDT", "name": "Medtronic PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 79.162, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.053, "architecture_energy": 20.645, "architecture_maturity": 7.744, "architecture_confidence": 45.617, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.07, "rotation_up": 43.8, "upward_expansion": 36.47, "deceleration": 33.49, "rotation_down": 15.06, "downward_expansion": 42.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.150667, 83.766165, 81.849597, 83.166979 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 87.16, "trend_reference": 86.369905, "distance_from_trend": 0.009148, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 83.100767, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048847, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.855208, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.146063, "excess_performance": -0.271687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053164, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138423, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123725, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146063, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.912228, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27913524, "relative_activity": 0.625119, "balance": 1.912228, "dry_up": 0.794003, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052068, "annualized_volatility": 0.256798, "from_high_reference": -0.16753, "from_low_reference": 0.199495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.369905, "fair_value_reference": 83.100767, "structural_low": 72.663939, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.003067, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.016299, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.121544, "worst_return": -0.08244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016006, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052401, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.093633, "worst_return": -0.18165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001458, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105334, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.169639, "worst_return": -0.255553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037161, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022873, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050923, "active": false 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"2026-07-24", "close": 83.21, "volume": 27619966, "typical_volume": 45258135.7, "trend": 87.018755, "fair_value": 82.976344, "relative_strength": -14.678233, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.672443, "energy": 17.56434, "activity_lines": [ 83.188, 81.78771, 80.997084, 83.241692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.39, "volume": 45209192, "typical_volume": 45174676.8, "trend": 86.689298, "fair_value": 83.031153, "relative_strength": -13.041512, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.760054, "energy": 14.885544, "activity_lines": [ 84.021333, 82.684053, 81.336565, 83.136611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.16, "volume": 27913524, "typical_volume": 44653130.85, "trend": 86.369905, "fair_value": 83.100767, "relative_strength": -13.855208, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.052545, "energy": 20.645201, "activity_lines": [ 85.150667, 83.766165, 81.849597, 83.166979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }