{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8a9ae80-a848-43e2-9ed4-62fd74bc88af", "symbol": "RLMD", "name": "Relmada Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 83.547, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.075, "architecture_energy": 59.372, "architecture_maturity": 16.174, "architecture_confidence": 77.479, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.36, "rotation_up": 14.51, "upward_expansion": 26.93, "deceleration": 49.58, "rotation_down": 72.63, "downward_expansion": 56.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.224667, 5.661273, 6.196, 6.177548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.94, "trend_reference": 5.826667, "distance_from_trend": -0.152174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.160578, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.563005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.719755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.273196, "excess_performance": 0.085742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152174, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115935, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.563005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.985496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.028066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.273196, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.599738, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6206922, "relative_activity": 0.826198, "balance": 0.599738, "dry_up": 1.049224, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178994, "annualized_volatility": 0.672693, "from_high_reference": -0.3825, "from_low_reference": 7.981818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.826667, "fair_value_reference": 3.160578, "structural_low": 3.45, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.158342, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.13964, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.384453, "worst_return": -0.098802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.260085, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.200896, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.185484, "worst_return": -0.335484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.851111, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.831144, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.21371, "worst_return": -0.878073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132184, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.836066, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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9820763, "typical_volume": 9808776.8, "trend": 5.774333, "fair_value": 3.131026, "relative_strength": 11.59643, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.896796, "energy": 44.211137, "activity_lines": [ 5.689333, 6.070909, 6.48, 6.263355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.31, "volume": 6290628, "typical_volume": 7541446.65, "trend": 5.805667, "fair_value": 3.148783, "relative_strength": 11.667383, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.878516, "energy": 51.318549, "activity_lines": [ 5.472667, 5.884, 6.35419, 6.233398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.94, "volume": 6206922, "typical_volume": 7512630.35, "trend": 5.826667, "fair_value": 3.160578, "relative_strength": -2.719755, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.075477, "energy": 59.372457, "activity_lines": [ 5.224667, 5.661273, 6.196, 6.177548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }