{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8aa95ff-6ace-4b0d-9764-35e2d9d04a3b", "symbol": "EX32", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Insurance UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.25, "architecture_energy": 63.981, "architecture_maturity": 30.813, "architecture_confidence": 74.96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 61.19, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 61.16, "rotation_down": 21.98, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.620001, 54.199546, 52.921571, 51.94386 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.740002, "trend_reference": 50.774, "distance_from_trend": 0.078111, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.161667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268255, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.713188, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100302, "excess_performance": -0.073945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078111, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028417, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268255, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055915, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025252, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100302, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.065566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1686, "relative_activity": 3.146109, "balance": 1.065566, "dry_up": 2.977235, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022189, "annualized_volatility": 0.169341, "from_high_reference": -0.011735, "from_low_reference": 0.189224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.774, "fair_value_reference": 43.161667, "structural_low": 46.029999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.001541, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.002807, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.07169, "worst_return": -0.13232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.043571, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.01631, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.107139, "worst_return": -0.076889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071323, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.001736, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.158488, "worst_return": -0.029576, "sufficient": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.401039, "energy": 88.966663, "activity_lines": [ 53.045, 52.055272, 51.140714, 50.552505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.139999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 542.55, "trend": 50.216166, "fair_value": 42.5975, "relative_strength": -9.33121, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.522232, "energy": 93.39021, "activity_lines": [ 54.014666, 52.721727, 51.595761, 50.883193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.25, "volume": 1686, "typical_volume": 538.05, "trend": 50.344833, "fair_value": 42.737083, "relative_strength": -8.709795, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.65376, "energy": 87.333207, "activity_lines": [ 54.317333, 53.145091, 51.940119, 51.14344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.32, "volume": 762, "typical_volume": 339.2, "trend": 50.459833, "fair_value": 42.873237, "relative_strength": -9.495959, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.144735, "energy": 86.116888, "activity_lines": [ 54.440666, 53.509727, 52.273619, 51.399903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.75, "volume": 2248, "typical_volume": 451.6, "trend": 50.598833, "fair_value": 43.018654, "relative_strength": -8.419964, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.825625, "energy": 80.266586, "activity_lines": [ 54.581333, 53.885273, 52.614238, 51.676688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.740002, "volume": 1686, "typical_volume": 535.9, "trend": 50.774, "fair_value": 43.161667, "relative_strength": -10.713188, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.250487, "energy": 63.981188, "activity_lines": [ 54.620001, 54.199546, 52.921571, 51.94386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }