{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8ac612b-c754-459b-a4b1-05a9e2568bc6", "symbol": "SPXS", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.482, "architecture_energy": 57.883, "architecture_maturity": 62.535, "architecture_confidence": 70.246, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.23, "rotation_up": 52.47, "upward_expansion": 79.53, "deceleration": 68.8, "rotation_down": 27.16, "downward_expansion": 8.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.160933, 15.081855, 14.945033, 14.649187 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.566, "trend_reference": 14.310233, "distance_from_trend": 0.087753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.682055, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332471, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.342667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130428, "excess_performance": 0.079193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004091, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033427, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024387, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130428, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.557308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11830358, "relative_activity": 1.851765, "balance": 1.557308, "dry_up": 1.487977, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021013, "annualized_volatility": 0.13, "from_high_reference": -0.004349, "from_low_reference": 0.235299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.310233, "fair_value_reference": 11.682055, "structural_low": 12.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.012075, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.009525, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.063721, "worst_return": -0.085151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.043205, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.014169, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.126941, "worst_return": -0.064001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.095007, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.030299, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.170423, "worst_return": -0.15668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.596038, 14.345142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.154, "volume": 9377658, "typical_volume": 6623168.05, "trend": 14.127567, "fair_value": 11.519378, "relative_strength": 4.581165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.24795, "energy": 58.171088, "activity_lines": [ 15.02, 15.007182, 14.683167, 14.414742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.984, "volume": 10118312, "typical_volume": 6720561.3, "trend": 14.173033, "fair_value": 11.559057, "relative_strength": 2.368622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.647505, "energy": 54.12608, "activity_lines": [ 15.019067, 15.007418, 14.747395, 14.469996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.938, "volume": 5239091, "typical_volume": 6385953.9, "trend": 14.211967, "fair_value": 11.597978, "relative_strength": 0.759094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.124185, "energy": 51.341737, "activity_lines": [ 14.998133, 14.995855, 14.801343, 14.519348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.912, "volume": 10837156, "typical_volume": 6511401.5, "trend": 14.253533, "fair_value": 11.637484, "relative_strength": -0.647823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.158079, "energy": 41.129294, "activity_lines": [ 14.974533, 14.978509, 14.845895, 14.564512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.566, "volume": 11830358, "typical_volume": 6388692.65, "trend": 14.310233, "fair_value": 11.682055, "relative_strength": 3.342667, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.482287, "energy": 57.88254, "activity_lines": [ 15.160933, 15.081855, 14.945033, 14.649187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }