{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8b470e1-f44f-4c51-8c92-fe5a3bfdcef7", "symbol": "IQQS", "name": "iShares EURO STOXX Small UCITS ETF EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.015, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.173, "architecture_energy": 80.134, "architecture_maturity": 27.304, "architecture_confidence": 87.567, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.74, "rotation_up": 68.53, "upward_expansion": 91.1, "deceleration": 45.23, "rotation_down": 16.88, "downward_expansion": 17.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.606, 53.162968, 52.524863, 51.830477 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.610001, "trend_reference": 51.214684, "distance_from_trend": 0.066296, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.120585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237744, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.932625, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061133, "excess_performance": -0.003507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066296, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032073, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237744, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055968, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019326, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061133, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.859829, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7015, "relative_activity": 0.340845, "balance": 10.859829, "dry_up": 0.5893, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020133, "annualized_volatility": 0.179973, "from_high_reference": -0.006187, "from_low_reference": 0.215852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.214684, "fair_value_reference": 44.120585, "structural_low": 44.915001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.013105, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": 0.002981, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.058004, "worst_return": -0.071164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007123, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.010347, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.121818, "worst_return": -0.042646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036117, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01872, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.118538, "worst_return": 0.024684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.743975, "energy": 48.728099, "activity_lines": [ 52.662667, 52.610475, 51.94964, 51.4258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.689999, "volume": 12662, "typical_volume": 23380.35, "trend": 51.084831, "fair_value": 44.025999, "relative_strength": 3.055686, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.79111, "energy": 55.174555, "activity_lines": [ 53.040667, 52.817283, 52.207248, 51.603047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.610001, "volume": 7015, "typical_volume": 20581.2, "trend": 51.214684, "fair_value": 44.120585, "relative_strength": 1.932625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.17307, "energy": 80.133643, "activity_lines": [ 53.606, 53.162968, 52.524863, 51.830477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }