{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8b93065-1e8b-4b22-ac3d-83ba63f1878a", "symbol": "5274", "name": "ASPEED Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.105, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.594, "architecture_energy": 34.821, "architecture_maturity": 32.744, "architecture_confidence": 70.937, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.18, "rotation_up": 52.46, "upward_expansion": 65.87, "deceleration": 58.98, "rotation_down": 16.97, "downward_expansion": 11.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 15987.666667, 15376.615146, 15377.187765, 14455.957785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17690.0, "trend_reference": 12892.152425, "distance_from_trend": 0.372153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5386.793285, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.283957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 42.538903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.196489, "excess_performance": 0.755117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.372153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.317601, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.283957, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34684, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.425389, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.196489, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.680562, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1149255, "relative_activity": 0.789215, "balance": 1.680562, "dry_up": 0.935305, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147248, "annualized_volatility": 0.578779, "from_high_reference": -0.048925, "from_low_reference": 3.222192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12892.152425, "fair_value_reference": 5386.793285, "structural_low": 7832.058105, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011961, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007013, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.366023, "worst_return": -0.200603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.102694, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013448, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.340659, "worst_return": -0.192565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004005, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049308, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.229009, "worst_return": -0.222029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 42.538903, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.593553, "energy": 34.821121, "activity_lines": [ 15987.666667, 15376.615146, 15377.187765, 14455.957785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }