{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8ba6441-6a2a-4b34-97bb-96679966799e", "symbol": "4330", "name": "Riyad REIT Fund", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.144, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.913, "architecture_energy": 58.935, "architecture_maturity": 5.447, "architecture_confidence": 62.889, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.51, "rotation_up": 19.01, "upward_expansion": 23.33, "deceleration": 40.52, "rotation_down": 67.68, "downward_expansion": 60.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.850667, 4.909455, 4.953192, 4.955039 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.86, "trend_reference": 4.949543, "distance_from_trend": -0.018091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.941444, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182017, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.038525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010746, "excess_performance": 0.021084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018091, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001067, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182017, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003063, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010746, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.622962, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 533357, "relative_activity": 1.056676, "balance": 0.622962, "dry_up": 1.022096, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020418, "annualized_volatility": 0.092401, "from_high_reference": -0.081407, "from_low_reference": 0.067132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.949543, "fair_value_reference": 5.941444, "structural_low": 4.554264, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023669, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.024705, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.071291, "worst_return": -0.117268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04142, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.03781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164882, "worst_return": -0.121595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.056954, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.004349, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.085411, "worst_return": -0.113128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.85, "volume": 509259, "typical_volume": 485297.35, "trend": 4.950561, "fair_value": 5.978946, "relative_strength": -0.956578, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.009298, "energy": 34.746908, "activity_lines": [ 4.926, 4.965091, 4.981487, 4.971767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.78, "volume": 487832, "typical_volume": 491207.35, "trend": 4.948718, "fair_value": 5.959966, "relative_strength": -0.409177, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.625453, "energy": 61.745104, "activity_lines": [ 4.866667, 4.928, 4.963398, 4.960763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.86, "volume": 533357, "typical_volume": 504749.95, "trend": 4.949543, "fair_value": 5.941444, "relative_strength": -1.038525, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.913241, "energy": 58.934843, "activity_lines": [ 4.850667, 4.909455, 4.953192, 4.955039 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }