{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8bacf2a-815d-47a0-94f9-531f46dcf625", "symbol": "688300", "name": "Novoray Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.559, "architecture_energy": 28.911, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.471, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.31, "rotation_up": 15.77, "upward_expansion": 48.16, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 47.19, "downward_expansion": 27.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 134.896666, 163.788379, 158.886389, 141.818403 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 151.699997, "trend_reference": 118.612986, "distance_from_trend": 0.278949, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.001466, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.661335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 64.735865, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.271298, "excess_performance": 1.314502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.278949, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.514216, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.661335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.602538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.647359, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237825, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.271298, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.311639, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68157632, "relative_activity": 1.882705, "balance": 1.311639, "dry_up": 1.51673, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.28397, "annualized_volatility": 1.164735, "from_high_reference": -0.453766, "from_low_reference": 2.057851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.612986, "fair_value_reference": 57.001466, "structural_low": 59.119999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.103071, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.075935, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119416, "worst_return": -0.300495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.174225, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.166685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.027537, "worst_return": -0.272538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.142379, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.069101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.265823, "worst_return": -0.058071, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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155.524189, 132.09328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 183.169998, "volume": 46424611, "typical_volume": 34555185.1, "trend": 109.199986, "fair_value": 54.585967, "relative_strength": 109.743973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.583204, "energy": 67.155904, "activity_lines": [ 218.499334, 200.953161, 160.947333, 137.136184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 141.0, "volume": 50886846, "typical_volume": 35772612.3, "trend": 111.947986, "fair_value": 55.263872, "relative_strength": 67.902225, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.408971, "energy": 45.246771, "activity_lines": [ 191.082667, 194.033677, 161.781097, 139.187798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 123.5, "volume": 52100325, "typical_volume": 36517393.6, "trend": 114.171653, "fair_value": 55.834237, "relative_strength": 42.884344, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.548465, "energy": 27.431784, "activity_lines": [ 160.97, 183.077986, 160.61448, 139.933089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 107.32, "volume": 48489671, "typical_volume": 34835712.7, "trend": 115.625986, "fair_value": 56.263042, "relative_strength": 22.124321, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.849736, "energy": 26.785629, "activity_lines": [ 135.262, 169.152023, 157.675958, 139.491047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 151.699997, "volume": 68157632, "typical_volume": 36201974.25, "trend": 118.612986, "fair_value": 57.001466, "relative_strength": 64.735865, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.558991, "energy": 28.911253, "activity_lines": [ 134.896666, 163.788379, 158.886389, 141.818403 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }