{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8d22e79-d1ec-4697-8907-75511a10a02d", "symbol": "ALM", "name": "Alma Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.894, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.903, "architecture_energy": 58.687, "architecture_maturity": 17.294, "architecture_confidence": 78.438, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.1, "rotation_up": 11.38, "upward_expansion": 12.09, "deceleration": 38.91, "rotation_down": 68.29, "downward_expansion": 87.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011333, 0.011909, 0.012838, 0.013215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.0136, "distance_from_trend": -0.191176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.008462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.135217, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3125, "excess_performance": -0.376206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162393, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.3, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.372282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021352, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.669053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125255, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5701681, "relative_activity": 0.466728, "balance": 1.125255, "dry_up": 0.66358, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199301, "annualized_volatility": 0.665239, "from_high_reference": -0.541667, "from_low_reference": 1.75 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0136, "fair_value_reference": 0.008462, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.067899, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.090634, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.4375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.208333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.262329, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.671875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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17.067828, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.700999, "energy": 26.577416, "activity_lines": [ 0.012733, 0.013582, 0.0137, 0.013742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.011, "volume": 8667980, "typical_volume": 15377136.75, "trend": 0.0132, "fair_value": 0.008468, "relative_strength": 6.233046, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.393092, "energy": 46.809286, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.013018, 0.013429, 0.013609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 8994237, "typical_volume": 13894688.8, "trend": 0.013367, "fair_value": 0.008468, "relative_strength": 5.461418, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.652356, "energy": 54.048248, "activity_lines": [ 0.011533, 0.012509, 0.013181, 0.013467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.012, "volume": 9062044, "typical_volume": 12953606.7, "trend": 0.013533, "fair_value": 0.008468, "relative_strength": 11.063516, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.407321, "energy": 58.127911, "activity_lines": [ 0.0116, 0.012273, 0.013052, 0.013378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 5701681, "typical_volume": 12216292.85, "trend": 0.0136, "fair_value": 0.008462, "relative_strength": -2.135217, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.902751, "energy": 58.686934, "activity_lines": [ 0.011333, 0.011909, 0.012838, 0.013215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }