{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8d78bed-b20c-43f6-bab1-b79c76c132ec", "symbol": "VBK", "name": "VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS VANGUARD SMALL-CAP GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.496, "architecture_energy": 24.969, "architecture_maturity": 53.437, "architecture_confidence": 85.915, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.0, "rotation_up": 31.08, "upward_expansion": 57.56, "deceleration": 87.77, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 18.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 348.889333, 350.396869, 347.594321, 340.178788 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 360.61, "trend_reference": 331.682428, "distance_from_trend": 0.087215, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 274.244511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.201871, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141094, "excess_performance": 0.015469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087215, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049922, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013202, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012019, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141094, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.258874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1221894, "relative_activity": 1.084525, "balance": 1.258874, "dry_up": 0.926573, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039653, "annualized_volatility": 0.185133, "from_high_reference": -0.017036, "from_low_reference": 0.303952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 331.682428, "fair_value_reference": 274.244511, "structural_low": 287.99, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017405, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.009996, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.051208, "worst_return": -0.044471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022005, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10815, "worst_return": -0.154902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092905, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.052915, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.136719, "worst_return": 6.7e-05, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.313954, "energy": 53.766115, "activity_lines": [ 355.860768, 352.850001, 343.056142, 335.473238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 344.58, "volume": 984139, "typical_volume": 1148347.15, "trend": 328.084411, "fair_value": 271.950889, "relative_strength": 0.769435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.060735, "energy": 41.903632, "activity_lines": [ 352.304348, 351.857083, 344.196227, 336.619486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 341.7, "volume": 1096650, "typical_volume": 1147717.75, "trend": 329.194736, "fair_value": 272.648778, "relative_strength": 0.481318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.381613, "energy": 28.008037, "activity_lines": [ 348.179333, 350.315956, 344.944583, 337.497911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 340.46, "volume": 873058, "typical_volume": 1118712.75, "trend": 330.32166, "fair_value": 273.370051, "relative_strength": -0.993038, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.322491, "energy": 21.540754, "activity_lines": [ 344.606, 348.467277, 345.402861, 338.224702 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 360.61, "volume": 1221894, "typical_volume": 1126663.0, "trend": 331.682428, "fair_value": 274.244511, "relative_strength": 1.201871, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.495784, "energy": 24.968658, "activity_lines": [ 348.889333, 350.396869, 347.594321, 340.178788 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }