{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8db2c31-0041-4849-b2bd-74d52e611208", "symbol": "2165", "name": "Ling Yue Services Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.323, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.92, "architecture_energy": 29.475, "architecture_maturity": 48.169, "architecture_confidence": 80.366, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.3, "rotation_up": 22.17, "upward_expansion": 5.26, "deceleration": 46.18, "rotation_down": 49.21, "downward_expansion": 76.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.564, 1.575, 1.577929, 1.611667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.645, "trend_reference": 1.677167, "distance_from_trend": -0.019179, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.405064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170765, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.942371, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.079443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019179, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055295, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170765, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054038, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116172, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.182069, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2124000, "relative_activity": 11.609729, "balance": 3.182069, "dry_up": 3.44903, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05401, "annualized_volatility": 0.280997, "from_high_reference": -0.205314, "from_low_reference": 0.265385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.677167, "fair_value_reference": 1.405064, "structural_low": 1.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.020619, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.017066, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.098039, "worst_return": -0.133929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010521, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041875, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.28, "worst_return": -0.126374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.172166, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.146589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.254902, "worst_return": 0.089431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.262554, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.782942, "energy": 36.720945, "activity_lines": [ 1.565333, 1.583091, 1.589238, 1.636774 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 1.535, "volume": 33000, "typical_volume": 73050.0, "trend": 1.698833, "fair_value": 1.391186, "relative_strength": -11.06409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.448838, "energy": 44.508928, "activity_lines": [ 1.547, 1.574727, 1.581048, 1.625462 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 1.525, "volume": 204000, "typical_volume": 80800.0, "trend": 1.685, "fair_value": 1.397788, "relative_strength": -10.35541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.528228, "energy": 56.191414, "activity_lines": [ 1.531333, 1.563364, 1.573262, 1.614247 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 1.645, "volume": 2124000, "typical_volume": 182950.0, "trend": 1.677167, "fair_value": 1.405064, "relative_strength": -0.942371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.920365, "energy": 29.47477, "activity_lines": [ 1.564, 1.575, 1.577929, 1.611667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }