{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8e5fe50-b16e-4f77-8208-554a5519ba20", "symbol": "DUE", "name": "D\u00fcrr Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.937, "architecture_energy": 43.557, "architecture_maturity": 31.863, "architecture_confidence": 89.911, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.07, "rotation_up": 21.74, "upward_expansion": 6.51, "deceleration": 56.21, "rotation_down": 50.1, "downward_expansion": 77.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.004, 18.162364, 18.98641, 19.372718 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.08, "trend_reference": 20.065466, "distance_from_trend": -0.098949, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.328416, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.60969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187067, "excess_performance": -0.361314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098949, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026382, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162161, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187067, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859086, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1037, "relative_activity": 5.452156, "balance": 0.859086, "dry_up": 3.020505, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063388, "annualized_volatility": 0.472378, "from_high_reference": -0.25035, "from_low_reference": 0.081725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.065466, "fair_value_reference": 20.328416, "structural_low": 16.714047, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.009331, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007268, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.197943, "worst_return": -0.174591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020608, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.045577, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.489479, "worst_return": -0.232681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038608, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.630375, "worst_return": -0.320197, "sufficient": true }, { 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18.758, 19.45784, 19.808933, 20.194354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.1, "volume": 55, "typical_volume": 231.8, "trend": 20.534086, "fair_value": 20.52952, "relative_strength": -31.68872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.733472, "energy": 82.530401, "activity_lines": [ 18.093333, 18.941247, 19.524443, 19.965783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.280001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 208.6, "trend": 20.475884, "fair_value": 20.481445, "relative_strength": -24.800596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.590114, "energy": 75.256311, "activity_lines": [ 18.032, 18.700279, 19.384376, 19.820358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.16, "volume": 1150, "typical_volume": 150.85, "trend": 20.359125, "fair_value": 20.432949, "relative_strength": -25.531695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.12956, "energy": 67.474928, "activity_lines": [ 18.001334, 18.506, 19.258159, 19.670946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.879999, "volume": 111, "typical_volume": 146.85, "trend": 20.223404, "fair_value": 20.376029, "relative_strength": -25.959419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.40888, "energy": 58.25378, "activity_lines": [ 17.973333, 18.290364, 19.11141, 19.511002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.08, "volume": 1037, "typical_volume": 190.2, "trend": 20.065466, "fair_value": 20.328416, "relative_strength": -26.60969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.936802, "energy": 43.557331, "activity_lines": [ 18.004, 18.162364, 18.98641, 19.372718 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }