{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8e73c64-8a12-4f5c-b87a-982ee18f843e", "symbol": "9450", "name": "Fibergate Inc.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.071, "architecture_energy": 46.238, "architecture_maturity": 39.775, "architecture_confidence": 61.928, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.59, "rotation_up": 57.3, "upward_expansion": 79.63, "deceleration": 67.42, "rotation_down": 19.56, "downward_expansion": 6.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 776.466667, 771.941607, 750.336303, 737.861612 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 770.0, "trend_reference": 722.11342, "distance_from_trend": 0.066314, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 867.805304, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112704, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.648981, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.124088, "excess_performance": -0.037647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066314, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044637, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156533, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124088, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.398465, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 427900, "relative_activity": 2.091602, "balance": 2.398465, "dry_up": 1.721454, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043445, "annualized_volatility": 0.158021, "from_high_reference": -0.07117, "from_low_reference": 0.203057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 722.11342, "fair_value_reference": 867.805304, "structural_low": 657.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.004468, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.046229, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.20793, "worst_return": -0.229552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.128272, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.256049, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.378472, "worst_return": -0.266179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09841, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.244049, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.137045, "worst_return": -0.281682, "sufficient": false }, { 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778.4, 770.084525, 746.757268, 734.58936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 770.0, "volume": 427900, "typical_volume": 204580.0, "trend": 722.11342, "fair_value": 867.805304, "relative_strength": -8.648981, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.070587, "energy": 46.237605, "activity_lines": [ 776.466667, 771.941607, 750.336303, 737.861612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }