{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8ee6ef2-d47c-483c-8a5e-fda305a999c5", "symbol": "9411", "name": "Sab Invest Hang Seng Homg Etf", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.275, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.91, "architecture_energy": 21.155, "architecture_maturity": 69.938, "architecture_confidence": 55.707, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.56, "rotation_up": 45.26, "upward_expansion": 28.84, "deceleration": 38.4, "rotation_down": 18.66, "downward_expansion": 49.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.802667, 12.507636, 12.569476, 12.67028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.9, "trend_reference": 12.837333, "distance_from_trend": 0.004882, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.891304, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084826, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.890135, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065217, "excess_performance": -0.016941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004882, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004425, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018901, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023956, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065217, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.527755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21700, "relative_activity": 1.628885, "balance": 0.527755, "dry_up": 0.960929, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053309, "annualized_volatility": 0.168779, "from_high_reference": -0.114619, "from_low_reference": 0.151786 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.837333, "fair_value_reference": 11.891304, "structural_low": 11.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.046434, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.082478, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.046434, "worst_return": 0.046434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069652, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 9.86, "volume": 40673, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 10.62, "volume": 7158648, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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12.493818, 12.676762, 12.802129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.66, "volume": 17679, "typical_volume": 16036.25, "trend": 12.857, "fair_value": 11.846207, "relative_strength": -7.081148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.498109, "energy": 85.528247, "activity_lines": [ 11.932, 12.305818, 12.563905, 12.722237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.14, "volume": 40308, "typical_volume": 17729.5, "trend": 12.831333, "fair_value": 11.849545, "relative_strength": -3.222742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.499202, "energy": 73.717307, "activity_lines": [ 11.942, 12.230727, 12.505762, 12.675978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.62, "volume": 15339, "typical_volume": 17781.05, "trend": 12.828333, "fair_value": 11.858202, "relative_strength": 1.214512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.944849, "energy": 40.544476, "activity_lines": [ 12.153333, 12.258727, 12.500429, 12.662344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.72, "volume": 1158, "typical_volume": 15468.85, "trend": 12.831, "fair_value": 11.867778, "relative_strength": 1.165132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.354, "energy": 20.900824, "activity_lines": [ 12.374667, 12.306909, 12.507619, 12.655355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.0, "volume": 13009, "typical_volume": 12515.6, "trend": 12.837667, "fair_value": 11.88022, "relative_strength": 5.273335, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.219004, "energy": 16.460393, "activity_lines": [ 12.645333, 12.414909, 12.544238, 12.666258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.9, "volume": 21700, "typical_volume": 13322.0, "trend": 12.837333, "fair_value": 11.891304, "relative_strength": 1.890135, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.909502, "energy": 21.155481, "activity_lines": [ 12.802667, 12.507636, 12.569476, 12.67028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }