{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8efed88-16a5-4646-ad63-638a3fbb28e7", "symbol": "2314", "name": "Microelectronics Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.042, "architecture_energy": 74.967, "architecture_maturity": 70.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.995, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.67, "rotation_up": 12.44, "upward_expansion": 15.87, "deceleration": 38.83, "rotation_down": 77.42, "downward_expansion": 93.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.763333, 12.517273, 13.435238, 14.389247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.2, "trend_reference": 16.07, "distance_from_trend": -0.303049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.87314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.784089, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -60.071809, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.457627, "excess_performance": -0.898999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.303049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.784089, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008692, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.600718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.457627, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.009522, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 744900, "relative_activity": 0.420561, "balance": 1.009522, "dry_up": 0.368492, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152473, "annualized_volatility": 0.647773, "from_high_reference": -0.603681, "from_low_reference": 0.037037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.07, "fair_value_reference": 51.87314, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.039204, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.03675, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.374092, "worst_return": -0.259193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.073825, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.119589, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.118954, "worst_return": -0.259843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.096415, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.203606, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.019078, "worst_return": -0.394326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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14.227273, 14.612857, 15.71828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.35, "volume": 634278, "typical_volume": 2098163.3, "trend": 17.121667, "fair_value": 53.6575, "relative_strength": -56.342595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.622862, "energy": 72.517962, "activity_lines": [ 13.1, 13.846364, 14.327381, 15.388064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.45, "volume": 810318, "typical_volume": 2057617.5, "trend": 16.753333, "fair_value": 53.0487, "relative_strength": -58.25016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.961261, "energy": 79.414027, "activity_lines": [ 12.456667, 13.301818, 13.988095, 15.022151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.15, "volume": 421201, "typical_volume": 1833396.7, "trend": 16.406667, "fair_value": 52.464718, "relative_strength": -55.998382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.660454, "energy": 74.669109, "activity_lines": [ 12.203333, 12.963636, 13.740714, 14.725161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.2, "volume": 744900, "typical_volume": 1771204.45, "trend": 16.07, "fair_value": 51.87314, "relative_strength": -60.071809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.041648, "energy": 74.967293, "activity_lines": [ 11.763333, 12.517273, 13.435238, 14.389247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }