{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8f0846a-7799-48f1-a3e5-ad715116c930", "symbol": "603002", "name": "Epoxy Base Electronic Material Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.807, "architecture_energy": 29.977, "architecture_maturity": 66.507, "architecture_confidence": 77.438, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.15, "rotation_up": 14.86, "upward_expansion": 48.61, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 48.51, "downward_expansion": 28.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.390667, 16.982108, 16.975628, 15.679235 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.05, "trend_reference": 13.758975, "distance_from_trend": 0.093831, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.391743, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.036056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 36.980452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.623517, "excess_performance": 0.666721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093831, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.36307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.036056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.381341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.369805, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346804, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.623517, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007158, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 325947142, "relative_activity": 1.116997, "balance": 1.007158, "dry_up": 1.107343, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.228656, "annualized_volatility": 0.876806, "from_high_reference": -0.45173, "from_low_reference": 1.280303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.758975, "fair_value_reference": 7.391743, "structural_low": 8.94, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02243, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.003153, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.254398, "worst_return": -0.111465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.075972, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.09797, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.674761, "worst_return": -0.101266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.153012, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.060359, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.703446, "worst_return": -0.18452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.49, "volume": 343204402, "typical_volume": 282108890.6, "trend": 13.345975, "fair_value": 7.287315, "relative_strength": 29.713891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.903327, "energy": 21.44686, "activity_lines": [ 17.282667, 18.758663, 17.337239, 15.646307 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.31, "volume": 317017026, "typical_volume": 287159760.9, "trend": 13.503641, "fair_value": 7.328976, "relative_strength": 16.695688, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.603887, "energy": 25.641158, "activity_lines": [ 14.916, 17.585237, 17.029814, 15.57947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.05, "volume": 325947142, "typical_volume": 291806689.65, "trend": 13.758975, "fair_value": 7.391743, "relative_strength": 36.980452, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.806576, "energy": 29.976716, "activity_lines": [ 14.390667, 16.982108, 16.975628, 15.679235 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }