{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8f44ee2-35b9-4cea-b578-cd8fad2c4e49", "symbol": "300010", "name": "Doushen (Beijing) Education & Technology INC.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.504, "architecture_energy": 66.582, "architecture_maturity": 88.366, "architecture_confidence": 93.733, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 52.22, "rotation_down": 55.28, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.132667, 2.160182, 2.670857, 3.52428 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.28, "trend_reference": 4.723667, "distance_from_trend": -0.517324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.19, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.560694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.593804, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.680224, "excess_performance": -0.687624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.517324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.560694, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190161, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.635938, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.680224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.871832, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 353754214, "relative_activity": 1.729793, "balance": 0.871832, "dry_up": 1.295788, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14946, "annualized_volatility": 0.7994, "from_high_reference": -0.777561, "from_low_reference": 0.245902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.723667, "fair_value_reference": 5.19, "structural_low": 1.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.028169, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.006635, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.42515, "worst_return": -0.460695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023845, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.074926, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.387665, "worst_return": -0.661812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.149366, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.09551, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.112069, "worst_return": -0.590164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -73.131203, "energy": 69.80606, "activity_lines": [ 2.201333, 2.398364, 3.404381, 4.310581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.04, "volume": 191393764, "typical_volume": 196454264.6, "trend": 5.233333, "fair_value": 5.200128, "relative_strength": -68.762317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.849074, "energy": 69.743851, "activity_lines": [ 2.129333, 2.301091, 3.178476, 4.094473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.86, "volume": 176920341, "typical_volume": 188637457.4, "trend": 5.055667, "fair_value": 5.193462, "relative_strength": -70.839546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.849696, "energy": 70.953965, "activity_lines": [ 2.022667, 2.193455, 2.961571, 3.876839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.2, "volume": 337921062, "typical_volume": 195391251.7, "trend": 4.889, "fair_value": 5.191603, "relative_strength": -64.042443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.53175, "energy": 66.36154, "activity_lines": [ 2.068, 2.162727, 2.801667, 3.692602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.28, "volume": 353754214, "typical_volume": 204506651.05, "trend": 4.723667, "fair_value": 5.19, "relative_strength": -63.593804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.503683, "energy": 66.581982, "activity_lines": [ 2.132667, 2.160182, 2.670857, 3.52428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }