{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8f694a4-fe18-429e-bc96-9648fc5a8bb1", "symbol": "DJT", "name": "Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.802, "architecture_energy": 21.05, "architecture_maturity": 18.092, "architecture_confidence": 59.269, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.64, "rotation_up": 45.78, "upward_expansion": 35.58, "deceleration": 40.55, "rotation_down": 14.6, "downward_expansion": 41.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.602, 9.089091, 8.900238, 9.085183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.21, "trend_reference": 9.708167, "distance_from_trend": 0.051692, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.192788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.539941, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.284447, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108686, "excess_performance": -0.29614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051692, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117399, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.539941, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065842, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2407, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108686, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.933445, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19885622, "relative_activity": 0.960406, "balance": 0.933445, "dry_up": 1.140466, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121864, "annualized_volatility": 0.642158, "from_high_reference": -0.461782, "from_low_reference": 0.466954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.708167, "fair_value_reference": 22.192788, "structural_low": 6.96, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031517, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00647, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.265004, "worst_return": -0.306765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.265258, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.349483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.616861, "worst_return": -0.510123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013199, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.082346, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.847156, "worst_return": -0.598367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.502677, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.194131, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.669637, "worst_return": -0.664283, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001371, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128577, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.278562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.189145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03947, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.227316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163339, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": -42.737885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.373654, "energy": 35.485379, "activity_lines": [ 8.26, 8.301091, 8.637333, 9.217785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.66, "volume": 25881303, "typical_volume": 20181299.7, "trend": 10.152167, "fair_value": 22.320865, "relative_strength": -31.161324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.772985, "energy": 15.595116, "activity_lines": [ 8.760667, 8.531636, 8.703857, 9.172204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.56, "volume": 20537520, "typical_volume": 20315160.55, "trend": 9.9785, "fair_value": 22.269519, "relative_strength": -36.718523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.599467, "energy": 17.619418, "activity_lines": [ 8.770667, 8.548909, 8.670619, 9.069484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.86, "volume": 28150933, "typical_volume": 20878653.2, "trend": 9.848167, "fair_value": 22.233686, "relative_strength": -26.336301, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.311806, "energy": 12.35255, "activity_lines": [ 9.209333, 8.804545, 8.768905, 9.061839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.21, "volume": 19885622, "typical_volume": 20705428.8, "trend": 9.708167, "fair_value": 22.192788, "relative_strength": -26.284447, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.801904, "energy": 21.04968, "activity_lines": [ 9.602, 9.089091, 8.900238, 9.085183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }