{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8f6ee6c-399a-4f74-b05e-d6296e98f702", "symbol": "AUMI", "name": "THEMES GOLD MINERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.626, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.905, "architecture_energy": 21.765, "architecture_maturity": 51.456, "architecture_confidence": 91.232, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.82, "rotation_up": 28.36, "upward_expansion": 17.38, "deceleration": 43.31, "rotation_down": 35.29, "downward_expansion": 67.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.69594, 81.169291, 84.497545, 88.353536 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 94.4869, "trend_reference": 93.581067, "distance_from_trend": 0.00968, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.420008, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.674706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.111718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069425, "excess_performance": -0.256878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00968, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026169, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.674706, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724688, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24220, "relative_activity": 1.113292, "balance": 0.724688, "dry_up": 0.709206, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091141, "annualized_volatility": 0.617536, "from_high_reference": -0.239726, "from_low_reference": 0.643355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.581067, "fair_value_reference": 56.420008, "structural_low": 72.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.11596, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.055844, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.11596, "worst_return": -0.11596, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035992, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.455311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179298, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": 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51.013872, "activity_lines": [ 77.08842, 78.613118, 83.866171, 88.29895 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.4869, "volume": 24220, "typical_volume": 21755.3, "trend": 93.581067, "fair_value": 56.420008, "relative_strength": -6.111718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.904609, "energy": 21.76512, "activity_lines": [ 82.69594, 81.169291, 84.497545, 88.353536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }