{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8f79dbe-1547-4b35-a5b2-172e03bee12f", "symbol": "UNI", "name": "Universal Store Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 85.793, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.399, "architecture_energy": 4.16, "architecture_maturity": 13.738, "architecture_confidence": 55.772, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.43, "rotation_up": 26.5, "upward_expansion": 25.27, "deceleration": 40.71, "rotation_down": 25.03, "downward_expansion": 51.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.45, 7.442182, 7.269714, 7.413713 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.8, "trend_reference": 7.658275, "distance_from_trend": 0.018506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.392609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.310843, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.06773, "excess_performance": -0.131435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018506, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030151, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060272, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064893, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47602, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 411871, "relative_activity": 0.646222, "balance": 0.47602, "dry_up": 1.088361, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071105, "annualized_volatility": 0.387441, "from_high_reference": -0.204082, "from_low_reference": 0.266234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.658275, "fair_value_reference": 6.392609, "structural_low": 6.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.031325, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.000188, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.120805, "worst_return": -0.113772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.057556, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.009134, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.294618, "worst_return": -0.251262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.168178, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.086553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.221389, "worst_return": -0.189472, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.129775, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.067086, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.92083, "worst_return": -0.274045, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002127, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.192825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.245308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148374, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.304117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130146, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061985, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173954, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05948, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021477, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.946787, "volume": 216504, "typical_volume": 862477.7, "trend": 3.630214, "fair_value": 4.589394, "relative_strength": -23.887279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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7.253818, 7.270667, 7.493712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.47, "volume": 966422, "typical_volume": 680833.85, "trend": 7.71488, "fair_value": 6.308771, "relative_strength": -6.108437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.027965, "energy": 21.410516, "activity_lines": [ 7.588667, 7.328909, 7.266524, 7.476633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.0, "volume": 835186, "typical_volume": 657195.0, "trend": 7.684225, "fair_value": 6.334643, "relative_strength": -11.583986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.156941, "energy": 16.687596, "activity_lines": [ 7.394, 7.309818, 7.22681, 7.430512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.29, "volume": 561200, "typical_volume": 640851.55, "trend": 7.666151, "fair_value": 6.361554, "relative_strength": -9.779366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.110254, "energy": 12.203895, "activity_lines": [ 7.323333, 7.336909, 7.22081, 7.405078 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.8, "volume": 411871, "typical_volume": 637352.35, "trend": 7.658275, "fair_value": 6.392609, "relative_strength": -6.310843, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.3995, "energy": 4.160063, "activity_lines": [ 7.45, 7.442182, 7.269714, 7.413713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }