{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8f8521d-dc1e-4173-b2ba-17bd2b1157f0", "symbol": "KSM-F195", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds LTD - KSM ETF (60) Short TA-RealEstate IL (1676)", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.731, "architecture_energy": 62.555, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 55.663, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.21, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 46.58, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 311.973333, 304.065455, 5459.355238, 9951.710968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 328.1, "trend_reference": 15102.07, "distance_from_trend": -0.978275, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22717.769872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985558, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.545174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.985066, "excess_performance": -1.013966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.978275, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.355698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985558, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.013199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.985452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.70879, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.985066, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.427239, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2477, "relative_activity": 1.082179, "balance": 3.427239, "dry_up": 0.823649, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 6.349331, "annualized_volatility": 6.378265, "from_high_reference": -0.988017, "from_low_reference": 0.277648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15102.07, "fair_value_reference": 22717.769872, "structural_low": 256.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.009427, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.003206, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.121791, "worst_return": -0.056888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011296, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.023242, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.101673, "worst_return": -0.075734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001117, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.058094, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.02739, "worst_return": -0.108604, "sufficient": 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18334.693333, "fair_value": 23231.607692, "relative_strength": -98.73867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.974624, "energy": 80.740661, "activity_lines": [ 294.753333, 3012.036364, 10640.142857, 14288.576344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 312.8, "volume": 382, "typical_volume": 2230.55, "trend": 17518.12, "fair_value": 23103.933333, "relative_strength": -98.723349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.588389, "energy": 67.443296, "activity_lines": [ 303.16, 1663.985455, 9182.739048, 13125.873548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 299.4, "volume": 267, "typical_volume": 1974.6, "trend": 16704.433333, "fair_value": 22974.185897, "relative_strength": -98.775587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.514872, "energy": 67.14489, "activity_lines": [ 304.566667, 756.72, 7829.569524, 12014.988387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 301.0, "volume": 4415, "typical_volume": 2166.9, "trend": 15905.466667, "fair_value": 22846.948718, "relative_strength": -98.700066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.956456, "energy": 63.101708, "activity_lines": [ 304.586667, 297.210909, 6587.317143, 10956.702366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 328.1, "volume": 2477, "typical_volume": 2288.9, "trend": 15102.07, "fair_value": 22717.769872, "relative_strength": -98.545174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.730685, "energy": 62.554724, "activity_lines": [ 311.973333, 304.065455, 5459.355238, 9951.710968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }