{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8fb3f5b-0756-4ac8-8460-fe23965d0a7a", "symbol": "603585", "name": "Suli Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.519, "architecture_energy": 58.993, "architecture_maturity": 59.311, "architecture_confidence": 94.898, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.03, "rotation_up": 27.6, "upward_expansion": 23.61, "deceleration": 53.29, "rotation_down": 50.3, "downward_expansion": 75.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.738667, 9.724433, 10.652959, 11.624043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.12, "trend_reference": 12.711731, "distance_from_trend": -0.203885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.456051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.657347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.318822, "excess_performance": -0.275618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078362, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032139, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318822, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.260366, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19532380, "relative_activity": 0.460745, "balance": 0.260366, "dry_up": 0.477152, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08218, "annualized_volatility": 0.565885, "from_high_reference": -0.464044, "from_low_reference": 0.138358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.711731, "fair_value_reference": 10.456051, "structural_low": 8.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003976, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.000401, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.155285, "worst_return": -0.137269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057846, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.063067, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.239958, "worst_return": -0.173976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.074742, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.042904, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.257083, "worst_return": -0.343899, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.36, "volume": 23491230, "typical_volume": 45587258.8, "trend": 13.206995, "fair_value": 10.472389, "relative_strength": -29.879717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.321115, "energy": 87.054242, "activity_lines": [ 9.673698, 10.218298, 11.705273, 12.490401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.34, "volume": 20332512, "typical_volume": 44498478.8, "trend": 13.12518, "fair_value": 10.46696, "relative_strength": -25.012489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.864865, "energy": 87.805474, "activity_lines": [ 9.509164, 9.948666, 11.368453, 12.240917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.24, "volume": 21697260, "typical_volume": 43493416.15, "trend": 12.91938, "fair_value": 10.459969, "relative_strength": -26.169914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.698404, "energy": 88.786033, "activity_lines": [ 9.390977, 9.727374, 11.053163, 11.990261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.93, "volume": 19349510, "typical_volume": 42756824.4, "trend": 12.806998, "fair_value": 10.457621, "relative_strength": -20.499952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.774851, "energy": 83.138265, "activity_lines": [ 9.549682, 9.690993, 10.83135, 11.797397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.12, "volume": 19532380, "typical_volume": 42393044.35, "trend": 12.711731, "fair_value": 10.456051, "relative_strength": -20.657347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.518785, "energy": 58.992602, "activity_lines": [ 9.738667, 9.724433, 10.652959, 11.624043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }