{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8ff7662-29b8-4aa4-8fc8-28ef0f38b64e", "symbol": "JDW", "name": "J D Wetherspoon plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.559, "architecture_energy": 85.679, "architecture_maturity": 28.542, "architecture_confidence": 77.271, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.63, "rotation_up": 81.39, "upward_expansion": 94.6, "deceleration": 42.68, "rotation_down": 9.53, "downward_expansion": 18.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 770.2, 742.427273, 695.453041, 679.277726 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 814.0, "trend_reference": 674.525997, "distance_from_trend": 0.206773, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 695.520682, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170346, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.316282, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.214102, "excess_performance": 0.147823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.206773, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016295, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170346, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.308288, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.103163, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.293019, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.214102, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.246568, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1212367, "relative_activity": 1.035876, "balance": 1.246568, "dry_up": 1.37918, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058921, "annualized_volatility": 0.410902, "from_high_reference": -0.012136, "from_low_reference": 0.534506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 674.525997, "fair_value_reference": 695.520682, "structural_low": 530.464036, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.083565, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.042001, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.133783, "worst_return": -0.057338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.014473, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.048755, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.417709, "worst_return": -0.183618, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.019729, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.101618, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.224254, "worst_return": -0.133596, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.456201, "energy": 61.406269, "activity_lines": [ 725.966667, 704.254545, 666.792991, 663.200112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 778.0, "volume": 1245974, "typical_volume": 1281698.2, "trend": 672.157652, "fair_value": 694.448425, "relative_strength": 5.570064, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.070238, "energy": 69.64743, "activity_lines": [ 744.733333, 721.627273, 679.706455, 670.126607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 814.0, "volume": 1212367, "typical_volume": 1170377.95, "trend": 674.525997, "fair_value": 695.520682, "relative_strength": 10.316282, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.559403, "energy": 85.679116, "activity_lines": [ 770.2, 742.427273, 695.453041, 679.277726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }