{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f900730c-d4c5-4be7-b854-113859eceab5", "symbol": "PBFB", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 20 ETF - FEBRUARY", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.564, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.948, "architecture_energy": 63.898, "architecture_maturity": 45.209, "architecture_confidence": 80.591, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.2, "rotation_up": 59.6, "upward_expansion": 83.53, "deceleration": 59.81, "rotation_down": 25.31, "downward_expansion": 10.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.120273, 32.01424, 31.828031, 31.530491 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.4007, "trend_reference": 31.189767, "distance_from_trend": 0.038825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.439743, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139275, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.679548, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054999, "excess_performance": -0.070626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139275, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013249, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056795, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054999, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.028683, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20608, "relative_activity": 0.863123, "balance": 3.028683, "dry_up": 0.682712, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009741, "annualized_volatility": 0.054324, "from_high_reference": -0.011873, "from_low_reference": 0.115646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.189767, "fair_value_reference": 28.439743, "structural_low": 29.58, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005979, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.000184, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.015627, "worst_return": -0.025065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027479, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027778, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.029585, "worst_return": 0.025339, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.055693, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.052141, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.056387, "worst_return": 0.054999, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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57.964668, "activity_lines": [ 31.74658, 31.636296, 31.189801, 30.991732 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 31.8828, "volume": 4959, "typical_volume": 46073.15, "trend": 30.801987, "fair_value": 28.240561, "relative_strength": -4.946585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.047898, "energy": 59.114308, "activity_lines": [ 31.797007, 31.709096, 31.28081, 31.06616 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.7269, "volume": 23783, "typical_volume": 28050.6, "trend": 30.85649, "fair_value": 28.26823, "relative_strength": -2.966659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.105307, "energy": 52.663664, "activity_lines": [ 31.777193, 31.731718, 31.351814, 31.125832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.9082, "volume": 50307, "typical_volume": 27689.7, "trend": 30.91317, "fair_value": 28.296891, "relative_strength": -4.332118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.665123, "energy": 56.32794, "activity_lines": [ 31.818307, 31.778087, 31.43525, 31.193684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.08, "volume": 21239, "typical_volume": 24335.6, "trend": 30.974503, "fair_value": 28.326447, "relative_strength": -4.944864, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.445235, "energy": 72.46731, "activity_lines": [ 31.91514, 31.844089, 31.528676, 31.268963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.9, "volume": 12336, "typical_volume": 23923.3, "trend": 31.027903, "fair_value": 28.354149, "relative_strength": -3.849156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.325068, "energy": 67.613125, "activity_lines": [ 31.925413, 31.864898, 31.598385, 31.328673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.9202, "volume": 12559, "typical_volume": 24019.1, "trend": 31.07591, "fair_value": 28.38158, "relative_strength": -3.100364, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.709976, "energy": 61.935274, "activity_lines": [ 31.932287, 31.883925, 31.663685, 31.38624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.04, "volume": 19699, "typical_volume": 23651.35, "trend": 31.12891, "fair_value": 28.409507, "relative_strength": -3.631058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.160262, "energy": 56.013959, "activity_lines": [ 31.9766, 31.919071, 31.733051, 31.44844 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.4007, "volume": 20608, "typical_volume": 23876.1, "trend": 31.189767, "fair_value": 28.439743, "relative_strength": -5.679548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.94758, "energy": 63.897867, "activity_lines": [ 32.120273, 32.01424, 31.828031, 31.530491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }