{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9069d46-109a-4175-b61c-9f105fe367af", "symbol": "KMI", "name": "Kinder Morgan, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.227, "architecture_energy": 10.506, "architecture_maturity": 49.255, "architecture_confidence": 65.328, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.89, "rotation_up": 23.85, "upward_expansion": 50.37, "deceleration": 81.16, "rotation_down": 33.17, "downward_expansion": 25.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.435829, 27.701285, 27.696333, 27.685887 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.84, "trend_reference": 27.355611, "distance_from_trend": -0.018848, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.947764, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.175443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054689, "excess_performance": -0.119558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087626, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131754, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080496, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054689, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044958, "annualized_volatility": 0.25431, "from_high_reference": -0.099027, "from_low_reference": 0.250553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.355611, "fair_value_reference": 20.947764, "structural_low": 25.294966, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.030975, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.013895, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.115427, "worst_return": -0.059464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054625, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.048496, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.114299, "worst_return": -0.043364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083499, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.016307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109526, "worst_return": -0.080035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030167, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.653397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051166, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03883, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039657, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.618325, "energy": 27.53721, "activity_lines": [ 28.044151, 27.906491, 27.797376, 27.437246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.813976, "volume": 713, "typical_volume": 70.2, "trend": 26.695681, "fair_value": 20.59211, "relative_strength": -8.764275, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.229953, "energy": 26.636101, "activity_lines": [ 28.005179, 27.912542, 27.794929, 27.521546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.239903, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.2, "trend": 26.895953, "fair_value": 20.686278, "relative_strength": -5.370107, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.355836, "energy": 33.200885, "activity_lines": [ 28.094585, 27.978917, 27.829811, 27.621173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.477629, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.2, "trend": 27.095024, "fair_value": 20.781127, "relative_strength": -5.748697, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.862774, "energy": 27.818257, "activity_lines": [ 28.231239, 28.066153, 27.884497, 27.723217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.902692, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.15, "trend": 27.226281, "fair_value": 20.865572, "relative_strength": -10.591629, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.870921, "energy": 6.997033, "activity_lines": [ 27.769073, 27.871261, 27.788986, 27.710808 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.15, "trend": 27.355611, "fair_value": 20.947764, "relative_strength": -13.175443, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.227174, "energy": 10.50559, "activity_lines": [ 27.435829, 27.701285, 27.696333, 27.685887 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }