{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f90f6abb-9b1e-4fc5-8fac-16d9cbc567a5", "symbol": "FCCV", "name": "Fidelity Canadian Value ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.722, "architecture_energy": 77.836, "architecture_maturity": 38.805, "architecture_confidence": 84.536, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.81, "rotation_up": 71.45, "upward_expansion": 90.99, "deceleration": 46.43, "rotation_down": 18.86, "downward_expansion": 15.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.636667, 23.421127, 23.122581, 22.758766 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.18, "trend_reference": 22.284499, "distance_from_trend": 0.085059, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.194452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.493104, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.547741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.152914, "excess_performance": 0.032493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085059, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053117, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.493104, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011393, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035477, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152914, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.726566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77200, "relative_activity": 1.270573, "balance": 2.726566, "dry_up": 1.210089, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019326, "annualized_volatility": 0.145038, "from_high_reference": -0.001651, "from_low_reference": 0.466832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.284499, "fair_value_reference": 16.194452, "structural_low": 20.286118, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.012702, "positive_rate": 0.605263, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": 0.004605, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.069981, "worst_return": -0.056886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.036738, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.002186, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.128879, "worst_return": -0.140628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074709, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.011808, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.29911, "worst_return": -0.085275, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 94400, "typical_volume": 65970.0, "trend": 22.062487, "fair_value": 16.049627, "relative_strength": 2.628349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.616992, "energy": 49.751378, "activity_lines": [ 23.187334, 23.142236, 22.86004, 22.529611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.610001, "volume": 60100, "typical_volume": 64850.0, "trend": 22.175606, "fair_value": 16.120333, "relative_strength": 4.640721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.94474, "energy": 56.714387, "activity_lines": [ 23.342667, 23.236442, 22.970186, 22.629451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.18, "volume": 77200, "typical_volume": 60760.0, "trend": 22.284499, "fair_value": 16.194452, "relative_strength": 3.547741, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.721925, "energy": 77.835961, "activity_lines": [ 23.636667, 23.421127, 23.122581, 22.758766 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }