{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f910a277-7085-4d92-bd52-d30c0000c56e", "symbol": "ALGIL", "name": "Groupe Guillin S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.939, "architecture_energy": 22.155, "architecture_maturity": 16.805, "architecture_confidence": 83.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.57, "rotation_up": 16.39, "upward_expansion": 9.48, "deceleration": 53.46, "rotation_down": 51.5, "downward_expansion": 68.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.88, 22.071191, 22.026384, 22.145373 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.6, "trend_reference": 22.581193, "distance_from_trend": -0.043452, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.26363, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.837578, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098121, "excess_performance": -0.151433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043452, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17757, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000815, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.489105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12716, "relative_activity": 0.829956, "balance": 0.489105, "dry_up": 0.756137, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058506, "annualized_volatility": 0.335263, "from_high_reference": -0.320755, "from_low_reference": 0.053659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.581193, "fair_value_reference": 26.26363, "structural_low": 20.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.015472, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.002925, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.135021, "worst_return": -0.07113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025321, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.005201, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.124473, "worst_return": -0.140952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033989, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.001782, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.110417, "worst_return": -0.012696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016955, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039797, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.407463, "worst_return": -0.125154, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001658, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045763, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04363, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023783, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045139, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.181467, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096234, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 25.67639, "volume": 5910, "typical_volume": 15518.45, "trend": 23.335718, "fair_value": 20.408005, "relative_strength": 18.87144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"activity_lines": [ 22.318966, 22.189475, 22.053799, 22.34184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 11881, "typical_volume": 15657.2, "trend": 22.881193, "fair_value": 26.319472, "relative_strength": -16.164186, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.979844, "energy": 16.23376, "activity_lines": [ 22.133333, 22.138832, 22.034343, 22.262516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 12388, "typical_volume": 15240.35, "trend": 22.734526, "fair_value": 26.293028, "relative_strength": -15.315138, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.949005, "energy": 17.19141, "activity_lines": [ 22.14, 22.164765, 22.057744, 22.218568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.6, "volume": 12716, "typical_volume": 15321.3, "trend": 22.581193, "fair_value": 26.26363, "relative_strength": -18.837578, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.939206, "energy": 22.155342, "activity_lines": [ 21.88, 22.071191, 22.026384, 22.145373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }