{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9129015-8e15-40f3-89b9-5588c143b44a", "symbol": "HCHS", "name": "HSBC MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.055, "architecture_energy": 15.958, "architecture_maturity": 27.767, "architecture_confidence": 61.621, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.04, "rotation_up": 37.77, "upward_expansion": 27.92, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 16.92, "downward_expansion": 45.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.310867, 6.260255, 6.2458, 6.306531 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.306, "trend_reference": 6.411767, "distance_from_trend": -0.016496, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.816543, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.921157, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064947, "excess_performance": -0.057033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016496, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00787, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.756037, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47701, "relative_activity": 0.43556, "balance": 0.756037, "dry_up": 1.142674, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024963, "annualized_volatility": 0.175548, "from_high_reference": -0.35268, "from_low_reference": 0.088743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.411767, "fair_value_reference": 5.816543, "structural_low": 5.792, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034448, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012605, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.075747, "worst_return": -0.038837, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.003175, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066551, "worst_return": -0.0729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.057012, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002337, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207161, "worst_return": -0.093138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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119132.05, "trend": 6.491467, "fair_value": 5.791609, "relative_strength": -12.454159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.38399, "energy": 20.234846, "activity_lines": [ 6.309133, 6.205827, 6.260838, 6.343306 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.216, "volume": 266900, "typical_volume": 116849.25, "trend": 6.4611, "fair_value": 5.800434, "relative_strength": -14.340198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.898676, "energy": 25.394142, "activity_lines": [ 6.299667, 6.213345, 6.249767, 6.325534 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 6.296, "volume": 94082, "typical_volume": 112283.95, "trend": 6.43545, "fair_value": 5.809271, "relative_strength": -13.395758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.867871, "energy": 24.175159, "activity_lines": [ 6.310933, 6.236264, 6.246921, 6.314883 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 6.306, "volume": 47701, "typical_volume": 109516.4, "trend": 6.411767, "fair_value": 5.816543, "relative_strength": -12.921157, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.054514, "energy": 15.958175, "activity_lines": [ 6.310867, 6.260255, 6.2458, 6.306531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }