{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f914ad77-0c33-45b0-8955-617cc7ed707a", "symbol": "QQQ3", "name": "WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 3x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.11, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.877, "architecture_energy": 22.788, "architecture_maturity": 78.919, "architecture_confidence": 93.62, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.48, "rotation_up": 21.36, "upward_expansion": 48.56, "deceleration": 85.14, "rotation_down": 39.82, "downward_expansion": 28.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 350.465995, 363.876723, 366.453853, 342.867287 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 376.529999, "trend_reference": 314.038663, "distance_from_trend": 0.198992, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 214.665595, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.75403, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.594552, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.512898, "excess_performance": 0.342006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.198992, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.75403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188989, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115946, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211968, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.512898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.357016, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104878, "relative_activity": 0.960956, "balance": 1.357016, "dry_up": 1.139475, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105919, "annualized_volatility": 0.581432, "from_high_reference": -0.123901, "from_low_reference": 0.915696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 314.038663, "fair_value_reference": 214.665595, "structural_low": 196.550003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.017967, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.00423, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.346044, "worst_return": -0.261243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.149423, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.11334, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.442768, "worst_return": -0.512435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.355811, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.340453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.620633, "worst_return": -0.121323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128606, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036722, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015646, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 336.529999, "volume": 108632, "typical_volume": 108366.6, "trend": 308.927664, "fair_value": 211.614762, "relative_strength": 4.125016, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.628635, "energy": 24.955868, "activity_lines": [ 359.51533, 376.48436, 363.944949, 337.852061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 320.959991, "volume": 162966, "typical_volume": 109439.75, "trend": 310.82633, "fair_value": 212.930211, "relative_strength": -1.636469, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.963124, "energy": 20.481256, "activity_lines": [ 343.808661, 364.431268, 362.753567, 338.62834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 376.529999, "volume": 104878, "typical_volume": 109139.25, "trend": 314.038663, "fair_value": 214.665595, "relative_strength": 11.594552, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.877361, "energy": 22.788431, "activity_lines": [ 350.465995, 363.876723, 366.453853, 342.867287 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }