{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9164fb1-b1fa-4e3c-bcce-b9c8dc0ba545", "symbol": "5443", "name": "Gallant Precision Machining Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.856, "architecture_energy": 32.789, "architecture_maturity": 6.08, "architecture_confidence": 61.535, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.29, "rotation_up": 23.48, "upward_expansion": 15.71, "deceleration": 45.43, "rotation_down": 54.04, "downward_expansion": 52.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.313333, 99.966223, 105.755825, 105.764409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 106.0, "trend_reference": 103.313665, "distance_from_trend": 0.026002, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.720376, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.313175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.579532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.26213, "excess_performance": -0.179242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026002, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.313175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225795, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168328, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.26213, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.794977, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16704183, "relative_activity": 0.637189, "balance": 0.794977, "dry_up": 0.368515, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155372, "annualized_volatility": 0.627428, "from_high_reference": -0.237389, "from_low_reference": 0.393704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.313665, "fair_value_reference": 80.720376, "structural_low": 77.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004667, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.038314, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.180851, "worst_return": -0.130144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.126742, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.013332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195164, "worst_return": -0.38756, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.225996, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.055336, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.821248, "worst_return": -0.140712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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107.144892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.0, "volume": 7557106, "typical_volume": 29431273.4, "trend": 102.826004, "fair_value": 79.852206, "relative_strength": -34.579216, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.206381, "energy": 43.650465, "activity_lines": [ 96.353334, 101.096101, 107.37151, 106.064729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.099998, "volume": 4137505, "typical_volume": 27189569.55, "trend": 102.928953, "fair_value": 80.254362, "relative_strength": -28.81122, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.913484, "energy": 44.476651, "activity_lines": [ 94.153333, 99.279125, 106.032163, 105.566277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 106.0, "volume": 16704183, "typical_volume": 26215439.3, "trend": 103.313665, "fair_value": 80.720376, "relative_strength": -22.579532, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.856241, "energy": 32.788989, "activity_lines": [ 97.313333, 99.966223, 105.755825, 105.764409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }