{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f91fae9a-0690-487d-b852-31df51ae6d5c", "symbol": "OPXS", "name": "Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.784, "architecture_energy": 23.653, "architecture_maturity": 18.503, "architecture_confidence": 59.623, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.47, "rotation_up": 12.19, "upward_expansion": 9.88, "deceleration": 60.68, "rotation_down": 51.33, "downward_expansion": 64.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.77, 12.186, 11.992786, 12.122129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.99, "trend_reference": 12.5635, "distance_from_trend": -0.045648, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.036763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326803, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.978878, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.170242, "excess_performance": -0.357696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045648, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326803, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099276, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131811, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170242, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.605385, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144068, "relative_activity": 0.793785, "balance": 2.605385, "dry_up": 0.81156, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122715, "annualized_volatility": 0.520463, "from_high_reference": -0.324887, "from_low_reference": 0.231006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.5635, "fair_value_reference": 9.036763, "structural_low": 9.8628, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002868, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255208, "worst_return": -0.191489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010039, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145833, "worst_return": -0.202279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.636752, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.585199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.6875, "worst_return": 0.113095, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190173, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176634, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010811, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141599, "active": false 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12.8545, "fair_value": 8.823686, "relative_strength": -17.868758, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.044626, "energy": 23.381407, "activity_lines": [ 12.925, 12.495364, 12.105214, 12.375914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.76, "volume": 105062, "typical_volume": 185722.15, "trend": 12.825833, "fair_value": 8.883622, "relative_strength": -12.828404, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.439309, "energy": 21.393016, "activity_lines": [ 12.874667, 12.635182, 12.162881, 12.369817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.1, "volume": 251558, "typical_volume": 186900.7, "trend": 12.726833, "fair_value": 8.933429, "relative_strength": -22.568226, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.843524, "energy": 15.332749, "activity_lines": [ 12.268, 12.426636, 12.063357, 12.258473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.29, "volume": 88488, "typical_volume": 180771.75, "trend": 12.6665, "fair_value": 8.983878, "relative_strength": -21.346943, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.691845, "energy": 24.813309, "activity_lines": [ 11.852, 12.246636, 11.991119, 12.165774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.99, "volume": 144068, "typical_volume": 181494.9, "trend": 12.5635, "fair_value": 9.036763, "relative_strength": -19.978878, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.783503, "energy": 23.652553, "activity_lines": [ 11.77, 12.186, 11.992786, 12.122129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }