{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f92d216a-d6ef-4d4a-bdc3-684e20e906c5", "symbol": "CBSUSA", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI US Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.748, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.878, "architecture_energy": 22.043, "architecture_maturity": 57.273, "architecture_confidence": 75.002, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.81, "rotation_up": 15.9, "upward_expansion": 55.59, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 41.2, "downward_expansion": 21.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.369732, 18.459054, 18.405104, 18.359673 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.233999, "trend_reference": 18.296466, "distance_from_trend": -0.003414, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.038145, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.693979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009411, "excess_performance": -0.161481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004803, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000921, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025479, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009411, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.362543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4866, "relative_activity": 1.819031, "balance": 1.362543, "dry_up": 1.157175, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006986, "annualized_volatility": 0.048049, "from_high_reference": -0.145011, "from_low_reference": 0.028426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.296466, "fair_value_reference": 18.038145, "structural_low": 17.966, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003071, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.006244, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.023001, "worst_return": -0.057354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004768, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.057958, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.009982, "worst_return": -0.055103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.036771, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.120694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037545, "worst_return": -0.066746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042072, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004066, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009399, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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18.608266, 18.507745, 18.386866, 18.331105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.518, "volume": 2515, "typical_volume": 3854.55, "trend": 18.273133, "fair_value": 18.006094, "relative_strength": -11.407043, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.6889, "energy": 78.855566, "activity_lines": [ 18.584, 18.526872, 18.404628, 18.347772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.403999, "volume": 5001, "typical_volume": 4054.3, "trend": 18.2864, "fair_value": 18.016324, "relative_strength": -11.50145, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.886951, "energy": 40.275883, "activity_lines": [ 18.515066, 18.518, 18.410076, 18.356215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.403999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3036.5, "trend": 18.298, "fair_value": 18.028004, "relative_strength": -11.723146, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.20641, "energy": 27.975213, "activity_lines": [ 18.457466, 18.505636, 18.415733, 18.363802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.233999, "volume": 4866, "typical_volume": 2675.05, "trend": 18.296466, "fair_value": 18.038145, "relative_strength": -14.693979, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.878017, "energy": 22.043445, "activity_lines": [ 18.369732, 18.459054, 18.405104, 18.359673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }