{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f937d71b-a126-43dc-a6bb-a827c48e6d5b", "symbol": "XDAX", "name": "Xtrackers DAX UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.797, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.16, "architecture_energy": 58.487, "architecture_maturity": 34.727, "architecture_confidence": 81.75, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.93, "rotation_up": 58.13, "upward_expansion": 82.42, "deceleration": 50.22, "rotation_down": 19.32, "downward_expansion": 13.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 20422.6, 20271.472727, 20095.019048, 19936.87957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21045.0, "trend_reference": 19870.766667, "distance_from_trend": 0.059094, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16874.972944, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247113, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.273361, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047015, "excess_performance": -0.00422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059094, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006538, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04102, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035604, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.260796, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11167, "relative_activity": 0.361567, "balance": 1.260796, "dry_up": 0.43547, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02637, "annualized_volatility": 0.190945, "from_high_reference": -0.073755, "from_low_reference": 0.186515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19870.766667, "fair_value_reference": 16874.972944, "structural_low": 17736.816406, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.02266, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016081, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.052823, "worst_return": -0.042265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048228, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.01492, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.172254, "worst_return": -0.103264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.099952, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.038086, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.249897, "worst_return": -0.103546, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.774711, "energy": 9.623609, "activity_lines": [ 19981.733333, 20028.145455, 19891.214286, 19820.946237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20445.0, "volume": 12141, "typical_volume": 33942.35, "trend": 19853.6, "fair_value": 16822.908842, "relative_strength": -4.985404, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.250969, "energy": 25.834017, "activity_lines": [ 20121.2, 20098.763636, 19968.042857, 19860.015054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21045.0, "volume": 11167, "typical_volume": 30885.0, "trend": 19870.766667, "fair_value": 16874.972944, "relative_strength": -2.273361, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.159901, "energy": 58.487188, "activity_lines": [ 20422.6, 20271.472727, 20095.019048, 19936.87957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }