{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f938350b-d266-4725-9a7e-38457e1f3685", "symbol": "DBI", "name": "Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.019, "architecture_energy": 22.681, "architecture_maturity": 58.691, "architecture_confidence": 91.622, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.44, "rotation_up": 24.92, "upward_expansion": 56.51, "deceleration": 90.8, "rotation_down": 27.5, "downward_expansion": 20.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.608, 5.66, 5.597385, 5.462299 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.55, "trend_reference": 5.269695, "distance_from_trend": 0.053192, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.5848, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.548204, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.879338, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149788, "excess_performance": 0.086083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053192, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081747, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.548204, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018552, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078793, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149788, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.206818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4705011, "relative_activity": 0.931798, "balance": 1.206818, "dry_up": 1.297063, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037525, "annualized_volatility": 0.216499, "from_high_reference": -0.0625, "from_low_reference": 0.424688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.269695, "fair_value_reference": 3.5848, "structural_low": 4.574192, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009412, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.041252, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.146136, "worst_return": -0.005839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069075, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.065753, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.133884, "worst_return": 0.027299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.135417, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.136145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21192, "worst_return": 0.073836, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"typical_volume": 5213204.2, "trend": 5.243318, "fair_value": 3.563743, "relative_strength": 12.646901, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.267757, "energy": 27.774564, "activity_lines": [ 5.641333, 5.687636, 5.587418, 5.442513 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.55, "volume": 4705011, "typical_volume": 5049386.95, "trend": 5.269695, "fair_value": 3.5848, "relative_strength": 7.879338, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.01936, "energy": 22.681388, "activity_lines": [ 5.608, 5.66, 5.597385, 5.462299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }