{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9390cd5-fb6b-4f4e-b33a-ae741d509124", "symbol": "EIG", "name": "Employers Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.086, "architecture_energy": 50.363, "architecture_maturity": 72.588, "architecture_confidence": 60.564, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 46.93, "upward_expansion": 75.3, "deceleration": 71.38, "rotation_down": 27.23, "downward_expansion": 13.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.023333, 49.924364, 47.64884, 45.922135 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.49, "trend_reference": 44.229458, "distance_from_trend": 0.118938, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.812817, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.155962, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.423204, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105896, "excess_performance": -0.019729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118938, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.155962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156926, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034232, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155616, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105896, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.575282, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 956682, "relative_activity": 0.835937, "balance": 1.575282, "dry_up": 0.894014, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051364, "annualized_volatility": 0.262541, "from_high_reference": -0.058947, "from_low_reference": 0.418587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.229458, "fair_value_reference": 42.812817, "structural_low": 36.856112, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.007925, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.020038, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.126889, "worst_return": -0.06971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003891, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.030376, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.069256, "worst_return": -0.195406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001479, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.066668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155769, "worst_return": -0.15651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 9.369614, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.458244, "energy": 60.113918, "activity_lines": [ 50.412, 49.778, 47.229797, 45.570056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.49, "volume": 956682, "typical_volume": 1144443.05, "trend": 44.229458, "fair_value": 42.812817, "relative_strength": 3.423204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.085886, "energy": 50.363374, "activity_lines": [ 50.023333, 49.924364, 47.64884, 45.922135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }