{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f93a4451-1468-4bbe-beba-00e4cceb1362", "symbol": "IETC", "name": "ISHARES U.S. TECH INDEPENDENCE FOCUSED ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.601, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.822, "architecture_energy": 20.955, "architecture_maturity": 47.484, "architecture_confidence": 78.465, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.42, "rotation_up": 32.79, "upward_expansion": 55.79, "deceleration": 86.84, "rotation_down": 27.18, "downward_expansion": 19.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.156, 104.948715, 105.248225, 102.807132 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 110.31, "trend_reference": 100.072159, "distance_from_trend": 0.102305, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 82.622105, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.122404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.188658, "excess_performance": 0.063033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102305, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012899, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035698, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004818, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188658, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.678614, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102970, "relative_activity": 0.421599, "balance": 0.678614, "dry_up": 1.12402, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056715, "annualized_volatility": 0.27924, "from_high_reference": -0.069749, "from_low_reference": 0.309545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.072159, "fair_value_reference": 82.622105, "structural_low": 84.235378, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.002945, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.004678, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.142982, "worst_return": -0.122776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.077906, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.008533, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.176706, "worst_return": -0.090899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.176916, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26182, "worst_return": -0.063362, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 248421.55, "trend": 99.812588, "fair_value": 81.659883, "relative_strength": -6.489432, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.339838, "energy": 22.922976, "activity_lines": [ 104.385333, 105.803011, 104.368376, 101.853408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 100.96, "volume": 695890, "typical_volume": 270371.85, "trend": 99.732154, "fair_value": 81.949552, "relative_strength": -6.637839, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.019809, "energy": 18.084584, "activity_lines": [ 103.019333, 104.734567, 104.34782, 101.927435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.87, "volume": 196103, "typical_volume": 248427.3, "trend": 99.812544, "fair_value": 82.258608, "relative_strength": -5.694865, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.726718, "energy": 13.268797, "activity_lines": [ 102.85, 104.11563, 104.471701, 102.129876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.31, "volume": 102970, "typical_volume": 244236.95, "trend": 100.072159, "fair_value": 82.622105, "relative_strength": -2.122404, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.821868, "energy": 20.955443, "activity_lines": [ 105.156, 104.948715, 105.248225, 102.807132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }