{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f93affe4-b7e6-426c-899b-8eed90bfbaab", "symbol": "1047", "name": "Ngai Hing Hong Company Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.542, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.42, "architecture_energy": 12.692, "architecture_maturity": 38.565, "architecture_confidence": 83.055, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.69, "rotation_up": 29.22, "upward_expansion": 62.25, "deceleration": 84.44, "rotation_down": 31.08, "downward_expansion": 16.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.353667, 0.358364, 0.35169, 0.347731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.335, "trend_reference": 0.3425, "distance_from_trend": -0.021898, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.342308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021348, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.317413, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015152, "excess_performance": 0.05442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021898, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000486, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021348, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046238, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009984, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.986667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82000, "relative_activity": 1.034048, "balance": 5.986667, "dry_up": 0.882724, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098737, "annualized_volatility": 0.646236, "from_high_reference": -0.271739, "from_low_reference": 0.135593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.3425, "fair_value_reference": 0.342308, "structural_low": 0.315, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.030768, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.029454, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007812, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014416, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133334, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.001562, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080209, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.422964, "energy": 16.492734, "activity_lines": [ 0.344, 0.338182, 0.33981, 0.339387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.33, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51000.0, "trend": 0.341, "fair_value": 0.344327, "relative_strength": 2.676413, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.302626, "energy": 6.647761, "activity_lines": [ 0.341333, 0.336091, 0.339167, 0.338527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.36, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51000.0, "trend": 0.340167, "fair_value": 0.344006, "relative_strength": 9.886134, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.918248, "energy": 17.228533, "activity_lines": [ 0.348667, 0.341182, 0.341381, 0.339753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.415, "volume": 360000, "typical_volume": 66100.0, "trend": 0.341667, "fair_value": 0.343718, "relative_strength": 21.599507, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.417439, "energy": 64.865272, "activity_lines": [ 0.372333, 0.355545, 0.348643, 0.344581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.39, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 66500.0, "trend": 0.3435, "fair_value": 0.34359, "relative_strength": 14.815236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.527262, "energy": 68.404563, "activity_lines": [ 0.382, 0.363727, 0.353048, 0.347699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.345, "volume": 60000, "typical_volume": 68700.0, "trend": 0.343, "fair_value": 0.343173, "relative_strength": 3.545467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.185671, "energy": 63.062597, "activity_lines": [ 0.372, 0.362545, 0.352857, 0.347796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.35, "volume": 130000, "typical_volume": 75200.0, "trend": 0.343, "fair_value": 0.342788, "relative_strength": 1.232695, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.61271, "energy": 45.074419, "activity_lines": [ 0.366, 0.362, 0.353048, 0.348247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 0.335, "volume": 82000, "typical_volume": 79300.0, "trend": 0.3425, "fair_value": 0.342308, "relative_strength": -1.317413, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.419942, "energy": 12.692253, "activity_lines": [ 0.353667, 0.358364, 0.35169, 0.347731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }