{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f93bc2e0-b32c-4c26-a550-291decb4bba6", "symbol": "ELGIRUBCO", "name": "Elgi Rubber Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.174, "architecture_energy": 70.257, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.851, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.95, "rotation_up": 73.03, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 43.88, "rotation_down": 12.49, "downward_expansion": 14.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.854667, 57.282, 53.99881, 51.193979 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 63.02, "trend_reference": 47.759333, "distance_from_trend": 0.319533, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.358013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050303, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.362471, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.481429, "excess_performance": 0.525138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.319533, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026538, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050303, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128733, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.203625, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176341, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.481429, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.294936, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 655177, "relative_activity": 1.765407, "balance": 7.294936, "dry_up": 1.133994, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106181, "annualized_volatility": 0.609182, "from_high_reference": -0.303646, "from_low_reference": 0.926039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.759333, "fair_value_reference": 66.358013, "structural_low": 32.720001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.002238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007354, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.291805, "worst_return": -0.225498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012833, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.027508, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.556604, "worst_return": -0.439584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.040237, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023083, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.632366, "worst_return": -0.463109, "sufficient": true }, { 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49.780953, 47.760774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.84, "volume": 463590, "typical_volume": 405085.95, "trend": 46.256333, "fair_value": 66.136218, "relative_strength": 20.100597, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.443995, "energy": 77.130588, "activity_lines": [ 56.872001, 53.661455, 51.163048, 48.797097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.580002, "volume": 218578, "typical_volume": 338304.15, "trend": 46.541333, "fair_value": 66.21141, "relative_strength": 8.567224, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.233744, "energy": 69.868388, "activity_lines": [ 56.876668, 54.217819, 51.749762, 49.334108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.349998, "volume": 346045, "typical_volume": 344940.7, "trend": 47.000667, "fair_value": 66.267179, "relative_strength": 14.771847, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.075917, "energy": 69.45876, "activity_lines": [ 58.112, 55.526546, 52.748905, 50.160473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.02, "volume": 655177, "typical_volume": 371119.55, "trend": 47.759333, "fair_value": 66.358013, "relative_strength": 20.362471, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.174198, "energy": 70.256612, "activity_lines": [ 59.854667, 57.282, 53.99881, 51.193979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }