{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f93d0933-37f5-422f-8b81-7ec4eeb55b79", "symbol": "603969", "name": "Silvery Dragon Group Co., Ltd. Tianjin", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.4, "architecture_energy": 43.168, "architecture_maturity": 61.965, "architecture_confidence": 91.438, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.7, "rotation_up": 23.02, "upward_expansion": 5.95, "deceleration": 55.85, "rotation_down": 49.29, "downward_expansion": 76.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.254, 7.326713, 7.811732, 8.265652 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.47, "trend_reference": 8.899115, "distance_from_trend": -0.160591, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.812484, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096516, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.872684, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.263314, "excess_performance": -0.22011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096516, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188727, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263314, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.556949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61640862, "relative_activity": 0.939016, "balance": 0.556949, "dry_up": 1.408223, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124218, "annualized_volatility": 0.49366, "from_high_reference": -0.352125, "from_low_reference": 0.123491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.899115, "fair_value_reference": 6.812484, "structural_low": 6.648921, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.002155, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004192, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.28199, "worst_return": -0.164924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021266, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.049868, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.573142, "worst_return": -0.174818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.159051, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.14726, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.298127, "worst_return": -0.008771, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019386, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054135, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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64305441.65, "trend": 9.074449, "fair_value": 6.777792, "relative_strength": -21.873036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.117676, "energy": 46.719521, "activity_lines": [ 7.281394, 7.407566, 8.02148, 8.488334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.14, "volume": 84725644, "typical_volume": 65428154.25, "trend": 8.987115, "fair_value": 6.793955, "relative_strength": -20.487338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.919175, "energy": 46.450911, "activity_lines": [ 7.225103, 7.320048, 7.89432, 8.363531 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.47, "volume": 61640862, "typical_volume": 65644133.8, "trend": 8.899115, "fair_value": 6.812484, "relative_strength": -18.872684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.400262, "energy": 43.168045, "activity_lines": [ 7.254, 7.326713, 7.811732, 8.265652 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }