{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f93f44c3-631e-4256-ad84-c5cd8d7c576a", "symbol": "ALB", "name": "Albion Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.798, "architecture_energy": 4.731, "architecture_maturity": 25.523, "architecture_confidence": 45.317, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.26, "rotation_up": 24.24, "upward_expansion": 24.24, "deceleration": 59.01, "rotation_down": 31.74, "downward_expansion": 52.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.048867, 0.048745, 0.047862, 0.048559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.056, "trend_reference": 0.050867, "distance_from_trend": 0.100917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.058353, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040316, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.031564, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.081967, "excess_performance": -0.145673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067807, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21351, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081967, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.645865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1153581, "relative_activity": 2.171602, "balance": 0.645865, "dry_up": 1.193689, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131868, "annualized_volatility": 0.920838, "from_high_reference": -0.513043, "from_low_reference": 0.473684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.050867, "fair_value_reference": 0.058353, "structural_low": 0.038, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022471, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.057566, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.089552, "worst_return": -0.126761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.075427, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.152941, "worst_return": -0.232877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.139968, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.212025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.047059, "worst_return": -0.232877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.232353, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.320296, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.2, "worst_return": -0.264706, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2022-12-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-03-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2023-04-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091954, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.150685, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.258065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.52, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.140351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017544, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.07, "volume": 29510, "typical_volume": 164370.35, "trend": 0.078333, "fair_value": 0.134684, "relative_strength": -14.52739, "stage": 4, "regime": 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647988.4, "trend": 0.052567, "fair_value": 0.058885, "relative_strength": -10.739062, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.091506, "energy": 9.811413, "activity_lines": [ 0.050267, 0.048273, 0.047905, 0.049641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.051, "volume": 457924, "typical_volume": 644782.6, "trend": 0.052367, "fair_value": 0.058763, "relative_strength": -19.606725, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.025218, "energy": 10.041974, "activity_lines": [ 0.050667, 0.049036, 0.048162, 0.04954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.042, "volume": 909059, "typical_volume": 567921.7, "trend": 0.0518, "fair_value": 0.058583, "relative_strength": -32.073387, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.981844, "energy": 17.159453, "activity_lines": [ 0.0482, 0.048055, 0.047557, 0.048871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.042, "volume": 15845, "typical_volume": 517597.95, "trend": 0.051033, "fair_value": 0.058423, "relative_strength": -32.375324, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.893455, "energy": 20.216861, "activity_lines": [ 0.046267, 0.047127, 0.047014, 0.048239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.056, "volume": 1153581, "typical_volume": 531212.1, "trend": 0.050867, "fair_value": 0.058353, "relative_strength": -11.031564, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.7979, "energy": 4.731489, "activity_lines": [ 0.048867, 0.048745, 0.047862, 0.048559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }