{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f941f670-500c-4bbb-a5d9-33ca9759bfcb", "symbol": "NVBT", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER10 NOV ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.738, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.829, "architecture_energy": 73.434, "architecture_maturity": 44.904, "architecture_confidence": 83.531, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.43, "rotation_up": 64.94, "upward_expansion": 88.81, "deceleration": 52.08, "rotation_down": 25.76, "downward_expansion": 13.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.974573, 39.74768, 39.392374, 38.799538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.621, "trend_reference": 38.128453, "distance_from_trend": 0.065372, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.194798, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223716, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.968148, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090734, "excess_performance": -0.034891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065372, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223716, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014824, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00633, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090734, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.312517, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7424, "relative_activity": 0.720581, "balance": 4.312517, "dry_up": 0.521921, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012989, "annualized_volatility": 0.09491, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.159024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.128453, "fair_value_reference": 33.194798, "structural_low": 35.0546, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.009046, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.695652, "median_excess_return": -0.001998, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.031575, "worst_return": -0.040032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025718, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.007223, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.053763, "worst_return": -0.034582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.07114, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.031587, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.07879, "worst_return": -0.022232, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 32.914079, "relative_strength": -2.758042, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.459272, "energy": 65.541811, "activity_lines": [ 39.52916, 39.430202, 38.798275, 38.290458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.585, "volume": 6705, "typical_volume": 11275.05, "trend": 37.842417, "fair_value": 32.981738, "relative_strength": -1.921046, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.459153, "energy": 65.823831, "activity_lines": [ 39.575467, 39.474205, 38.941506, 38.408963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.3956, "volume": 2917, "typical_volume": 11149.2, "trend": 37.918047, "fair_value": 33.046647, "relative_strength": -1.735125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.914071, "energy": 62.234049, "activity_lines": [ 39.536307, 39.47296, 39.054594, 38.509169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.8142, "volume": 4463, "typical_volume": 10262.0, "trend": 38.01642, "fair_value": 33.117935, "relative_strength": -1.667141, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.523555, "energy": 62.708048, "activity_lines": [ 39.648447, 39.541629, 39.193829, 38.631501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.621, "volume": 7424, "typical_volume": 10302.8, "trend": 38.128453, "fair_value": 33.194798, "relative_strength": -2.968148, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.829076, "energy": 73.434365, "activity_lines": [ 39.974573, 39.74768, 39.392374, 38.799538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }