{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f947fcf4-8e91-43bf-96a0-3541e44a2252", "symbol": "603606", "name": "Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.823, "architecture_energy": 46.419, "architecture_maturity": 41.134, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.1, "rotation_up": 23.07, "upward_expansion": 6.34, "deceleration": 53.78, "rotation_down": 53.73, "downward_expansion": 79.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.420668, 39.808001, 42.211774, 44.093151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.700001, "trend_reference": 46.017734, "distance_from_trend": -0.15902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.212485, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060964, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.091682, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152035, "excess_performance": -0.108831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06563, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 37.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.047211, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.043454, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.293413, "worst_return": -0.172233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041652, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.071743, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.456522, "worst_return": -0.353252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.384617, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.266252, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.10559, "worst_return": -0.326314, "sufficient": true }, { 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43.954827, 45.446117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.25, "volume": 101558610, "typical_volume": 71406221.45, "trend": 46.692911, "fair_value": 41.177442, "relative_strength": -14.431973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.419825, "energy": 48.430866, "activity_lines": [ 39.511334, 40.170424, 43.274213, 44.94546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.150002, "volume": 84877023, "typical_volume": 69228547.3, "trend": 46.367883, "fair_value": 41.198335, "relative_strength": -10.644844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.131524, "energy": 46.27176, "activity_lines": [ 39.978668, 40.159455, 42.825876, 44.587853 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.700001, "volume": 119197394, "typical_volume": 70048653.05, "trend": 46.017734, "fair_value": 41.212485, "relative_strength": -18.091682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.822953, "energy": 46.418624, "activity_lines": [ 39.420668, 39.808001, 42.211774, 44.093151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }