{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f948075f-d435-4c3d-8dd6-1bb6ca9deef7", "symbol": "EWAT", "name": "WisdomTree Wheat - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.626, "architecture_energy": 56.99, "architecture_maturity": 9.588, "architecture_confidence": 72.708, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.08, "rotation_up": 63.04, "upward_expansion": 82.85, "deceleration": 48.74, "rotation_down": 13.11, "downward_expansion": 14.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.156933, 2.114907, 2.090957, 2.073123 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.1225, "trend_reference": 2.031403, "distance_from_trend": 0.044844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.252504, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.767605, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143835, "excess_performance": -0.027057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044844, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057715, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057353, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067676, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.561953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32581, "relative_activity": 0.50281, "balance": 1.561953, "dry_up": 0.969144, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057617, "annualized_volatility": 0.246414, "from_high_reference": -0.093917, "from_low_reference": 0.212857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.031403, "fair_value_reference": 2.252504, "structural_low": 1.8324, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.041839, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.034412, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.096236, "worst_return": -0.244983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.097161, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.133871, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.113087, "worst_return": -0.25207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.189248, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.191845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065252, "worst_return": -0.424844, "sufficient": false }, { 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2.048465, 2.027587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.2545, "volume": 67801, "typical_volume": 107029.55, "trend": 1.994107, "fair_value": 2.271722, "relative_strength": 1.596988, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.342143, "energy": 46.878916, "activity_lines": [ 2.113433, 2.072067, 2.067759, 2.045441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.225, "volume": 125108, "typical_volume": 103503.2, "trend": 2.008747, "fair_value": 2.264213, "relative_strength": 0.691168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.242381, "energy": 59.197598, "activity_lines": [ 2.16486, 2.100484, 2.083089, 2.060338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.105, "volume": 25704, "typical_volume": 72650.0, "trend": 2.02058, "fair_value": 2.258338, "relative_strength": -5.084625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.525287, "energy": 54.185692, "activity_lines": [ 2.16302, 2.105445, 2.086204, 2.066548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.1225, "volume": 32581, "typical_volume": 64797.9, "trend": 2.031403, "fair_value": 2.252504, "relative_strength": -6.767605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.625701, "energy": 56.989896, "activity_lines": [ 2.156933, 2.114907, 2.090957, 2.073123 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }