{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f94b4677-e7ee-4e26-95ff-e51d93316f00", "symbol": "QEE", "name": "Mackenzie Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.168, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.773, "architecture_energy": 24.654, "architecture_maturity": 65.33, "architecture_confidence": 86.562, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.62, "rotation_up": 21.28, "upward_expansion": 54.63, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 35.65, "downward_expansion": 18.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.591334, 144.979026, 144.324326, 140.974944 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 144.229996, "trend_reference": 136.824201, "distance_from_trend": 0.054126, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.599063, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.405763, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.474001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113659, "excess_performance": -0.006762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054126, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070286, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.405763, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00474, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113659, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.790058, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4181, "relative_activity": 0.81112, "balance": 1.790058, "dry_up": 0.985236, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045986, "annualized_volatility": 0.264339, "from_high_reference": -0.079053, "from_low_reference": 0.358888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 136.824201, "fair_value_reference": 102.599063, "structural_low": 120.379997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032281, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.036632, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.139894, "worst_return": -0.038055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036628, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.023729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.291874, "worst_return": -0.013807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.081291, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.268912, "worst_return": 0.046318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021809, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021916, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000998, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.186963, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": 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135.546534, "fair_value": 101.805244, "relative_strength": 0.987991, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.003702, "energy": 22.938418, "activity_lines": [ 144.102003, 146.294439, 143.695288, 140.062367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.660004, "volume": 7036, "typical_volume": 5299.35, "trend": 136.198535, "fair_value": 102.190739, "relative_strength": 1.989609, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.949168, "energy": 24.44318, "activity_lines": [ 142.644003, 145.395603, 143.931212, 140.456785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 144.229996, "volume": 4181, "typical_volume": 5154.6, "trend": 136.824201, "fair_value": 102.599063, "relative_strength": 0.474001, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.773048, "energy": 24.654107, "activity_lines": [ 142.591334, 144.979026, 144.324326, 140.974944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }