{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9574256-3070-46d0-b0e1-b722efc5a0a1", "symbol": "MSC", "name": "Metro Systems Corporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.957, "architecture_energy": 28.494, "architecture_maturity": 20.898, "architecture_confidence": 67.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.45, "rotation_up": 16.5, "upward_expansion": 8.47, "deceleration": 60.87, "rotation_down": 49.25, "downward_expansion": 67.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.983333, 6.051818, 5.992857, 6.136566 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.9, "trend_reference": 6.407886, "distance_from_trend": -0.07926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.185812, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.178938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.428621, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.185415, "excess_performance": -0.37774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07926, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.178938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049082, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068471, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185415, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.050411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 189900, "relative_activity": 1.559754, "balance": 1.050411, "dry_up": 1.304107, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057366, "annualized_volatility": 0.225172, "from_high_reference": -0.235698, "from_low_reference": 0.082569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.407886, "fair_value_reference": 7.185812, "structural_low": 5.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.00641, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.009875, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.059086, "worst_return": -0.049505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00218, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.059086, "worst_return": -0.113861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000308, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052383, "worst_return": -0.064356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012739, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019355, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.154341, "energy": 15.467893, "activity_lines": [ 6.15, 6.090909, 6.039524, 6.243312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.95, "volume": 329100, "typical_volume": 114535.0, "trend": 6.502025, "fair_value": 7.209443, "relative_strength": -28.522268, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.491165, "energy": 16.06119, "activity_lines": [ 6.086667, 6.083636, 6.018571, 6.20461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.0, "volume": 43200, "typical_volume": 113665.0, "trend": 6.452651, "fair_value": 7.198354, "relative_strength": -26.390519, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.134999, "energy": 21.215938, "activity_lines": [ 6.043333, 6.08, 6.007857, 6.172221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.9, "volume": 189900, "typical_volume": 121750.0, "trend": 6.407886, "fair_value": 7.185812, "relative_strength": -26.428621, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.957362, "energy": 28.494285, "activity_lines": [ 5.983333, 6.051818, 5.992857, 6.136566 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }