{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9641e16-c779-482c-a78b-9420388e0282", "symbol": "QQQY", "name": "IncomeShares Nasdaq 100 Options ETP", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.098, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.196, "architecture_energy": 72.232, "architecture_maturity": 8.466, "architecture_confidence": 81.706, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.38, "rotation_up": 8.63, "upward_expansion": 15.87, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 76.3, "downward_expansion": 91.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.072328, 3.129288, 3.20281, 3.212907 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.129, "trend_reference": 3.228535, "distance_from_trend": -0.03083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.977539, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050868, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.322251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029521, "excess_performance": -0.080756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03083, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004886, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100097, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572998, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27966, "relative_activity": 0.77568, "balance": 0.572998, "dry_up": 0.780312, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036926, "annualized_volatility": 0.187095, "from_high_reference": -0.112891, "from_low_reference": 0.108649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.228535, "fair_value_reference": 2.977539, "structural_low": 2.822353, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062696, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03251, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-06", "close": 2.515479, "volume": 86, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.109792, "energy": 76.268856, "activity_lines": [ 3.090901, 3.187576, 3.231022, 3.233566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.0281, "volume": 21876, "typical_volume": 36373.9, "trend": 3.234451, "fair_value": 2.976024, "relative_strength": -13.219182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.303783, "energy": 79.459732, "activity_lines": [ 3.056078, 3.146271, 3.211657, 3.21971 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.129, "volume": 27966, "typical_volume": 36053.55, "trend": 3.228535, "fair_value": 2.977539, "relative_strength": -10.322251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.196347, "energy": 72.232185, "activity_lines": [ 3.072328, 3.129288, 3.20281, 3.212907 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }