{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f964dc1b-8122-4739-a2eb-b7cca8401e08", "symbol": "GS2C", "name": "GameStop Corp.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.309, "architecture_energy": 70.91, "architecture_maturity": 22.222, "architecture_confidence": 89.338, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.69, "rotation_up": 14.97, "upward_expansion": 17.2, "deceleration": 34.67, "rotation_down": 66.93, "downward_expansion": 85.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.146, 18.584, 18.965714, 19.283811 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.58, "trend_reference": 19.569667, "distance_from_trend": -0.15277, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.598417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.154013, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.767468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210852, "excess_performance": -0.275492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15277, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00556, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.154013, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214411, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210852, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.352859, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48393, "relative_activity": 1.042823, "balance": 0.352859, "dry_up": 0.694472, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064211, "annualized_volatility": 0.311355, "from_high_reference": -0.311748, "from_low_reference": 0.024089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.569667, "fair_value_reference": 19.598417, "structural_low": 16.190001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.012309, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02563, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.369993, "worst_return": -0.292982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051029, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.004981, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.293761, "worst_return": -0.250934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.210852, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.105556, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.70807, "worst_return": -0.311826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.319826, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.222486, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.235066, "worst_return": -0.372229, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00066, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040495, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104026, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.241448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.003709, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102002, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054671, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129659, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.034, "volume": 16052, "typical_volume": 19550.05, "trend": 19.7735, "fair_value": 25.986168, "relative_strength": -26.113824, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.062741, "energy": 45.181482, "activity_lines": 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19.5798, "fair_value": 19.614109, "relative_strength": -7.438172, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.709821, "energy": 17.386235, "activity_lines": [ 19.11, 19.032364, 19.317371, 19.527325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.85, "volume": 25206, "typical_volume": 45847.95, "trend": 19.624667, "fair_value": 19.609481, "relative_strength": -9.015749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.075378, "energy": 25.886606, "activity_lines": [ 19.004667, 19.012546, 19.244614, 19.480241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.58, "volume": 48393, "typical_volume": 46405.75, "trend": 19.569667, "fair_value": 19.598417, "relative_strength": -21.767468, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.308954, "energy": 70.909817, "activity_lines": [ 18.146, 18.584, 18.965714, 19.283811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }