{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f96b9b77-963f-403f-893d-3dc06383566e", "symbol": "MEL", "name": "Metgasco Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.285, "architecture_energy": 57.151, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.453, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.22, "rotation_up": 28.11, "upward_expansion": 9.77, "deceleration": 59.14, "rotation_down": 55.35, "downward_expansion": 85.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012067, 0.012327, 0.013114, 0.014684 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.0175, "distance_from_trend": -0.257143, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.195412, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.933474, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -73.4042, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.257143, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.933474, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010766, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.734042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072483, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.914503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5490, "relative_activity": 0.027306, "balance": 0.914503, "dry_up": 0.999663, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112426, "annualized_volatility": 0.594129, "from_high_reference": -0.913333, "from_low_reference": 0.625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0175, "fair_value_reference": 0.195412, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.04, "positive_rate": 0.255814, "directional_follow_through": 0.511628, "median_excess_return": -0.029593, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 0.833332, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.183333, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.175217, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.409091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.200001, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.226916, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.073153, "worst_return": -0.628571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.17677, "energy": 79.856187, "activity_lines": [ 0.012333, 0.012873, 0.013967, 0.015944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.012, "volume": 565666, "typical_volume": 229695.2, "trend": 0.018533, "fair_value": 0.202426, "relative_strength": -76.761584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.358468, "energy": 82.700795, "activity_lines": [ 0.012133, 0.012636, 0.013638, 0.015492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 231975, "typical_volume": 202976.7, "trend": 0.018, "fair_value": 0.198912, "relative_strength": -78.028353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.240525, "energy": 79.572178, "activity_lines": [ 0.011667, 0.012273, 0.013257, 0.015006 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 5490, "typical_volume": 201052.0, "trend": 0.0175, "fair_value": 0.195412, "relative_strength": -73.4042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.284871, "energy": 57.151369, "activity_lines": [ 0.012067, 0.012327, 0.013114, 0.014684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }